Moldova’s Agricultural Decline Under the EU Supervision

Behind the latest “expansion” of access for Moldovan agricultural products to the EU market lies a clear strategy aimed at undermining the country’s prospects for developing its own production

At the end of July, the European Union revised the provisions of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area Agreement with Moldova, which have been in effect since summer 2022. This was presented to the public as good news about further opening the EU market to Moldovan products. Indeed, customs duties on imports of our garlic and grape juice were abolished, and partially on tomatoes. Tariff quotas were increased for some fruits and berries: fourfold for plums (from 15,000 to 61,000 tons), threefold for sweet cherries (from 1,500 to 4,500 tons), doubled for table grapes (from 20,000 to 40,000 tons), and by a quarter for apples (from 40,000 to 50,000 tons). These figures can next be reviewed in 2027. In theory, this should inspire optimism, as domestic fruits are increasingly represented on the European market, which has strict quality requirements. It’s worth recalling that in 2014, the quota for duty-free imports of table grapes was just 10,000 tons – and it was filled almost immediately. By 2021, exports of these grapes to the EU had reached nearly 16,000 tons, and last year – 33,500 tons. Now, farmers can supply duty-free about two-thirds of the total volume of grapes exported. So, should we rejoice and celebrate? Not exactly. If we look at the trend over time, these volumes of grape exports are quite comparable to those that were sent to Russia and other CIS countries a decade ago, when exports to the EU were minimal. It is clear that our country has the potential to increase production. However, all these years, that potential has been constrained by the lack of stable markets – or rather, by a forced reorientation to a different one. A whole decade for developing the sector has simply been lost. The picture is even less optimistic when it comes to another traditional export product – apples. Just five years ago, apple production in Moldova was estimated at 650,000–700,000 tons, with a quarter of a million tons exported abroad. And how many apples are currently exported to the European Union? Less than 25,000 tons. In other words, we are not even able to fully use the duty-free quota, given the high level of competition on the European market. At the same time, our farmers are kept under pressure by constant statements that access for their products to the EU market will depend on gradually meeting all European production standards – standards that are constantly changing. One can’t help but remember that a decade ago, Moldova used to export 200,000 tons of apples per year to Russia alone. As a result, many farmers are uprooting their orchards, opting instead for less demanding grain or oilseed crops. According to statistics, in monetary terms, the export of fruits and vegetables from Moldova has grown by almost 1.5 times over the past ten years (from $292.5 million in 2013 to $425.5 million in 2024). However, in percentage terms, their share in the total export of food products has dropped from 55% to 49%, while the share of grain crops increased from 26% to 38% over the same period. In the category of technical raw materials of plant and animal origin, the share of crops like rapeseed has increased from 65% to as much as 80%. In the short term, this restructuring of exports allowed our farmers to earn well due to high prices in the EU. However, by occupying this niche of agricultural exports based on low value-added production, they have followed a dead-end path. Natural changes over the past ten years have only worsened the situation. The reduction of orchard areas has led to accelerated soil degradation, and droughts – which have become the norm – are depriving farmers not only of the ability to grow traditional corn, but also other grain and oilseed crops. This year presents a bleak picture: on thousands of hectares, corn and sunflower never even reached the seed formation stage. Moreover, most farmers have never considered it worthwhile to build and operate irrigation systems for such crops – a decision that is now coming back to haunt them. The lack of a forward-looking agricultural development policy – under constant slogans about reorienting toward the European market – has, in practice, led to a kind of cannibalism within the sector. For example, farmers who harvested sunflower crops last year demanded protectionist measures to maintain high domestic prices. However, such government decisions ultimately resulted in the complete degradation of the processing sector. This year, vegetable oil production in the country has virtually come to a halt, and exports have dropped tenfold compared to the previous season. In monetary terms, the figures are even more discouraging. While in the 2021/2022 season, exports of sunflower and its processed products (oil, meal) brought the country over 13 billion lei, in 2024/2025 they generated only around 6 billion. At the same time, the volume of sunflower exported in those seasons is almost the same – 554,406 tons and 558,784 tons, respectively. This entire situation suggests that the authorities have no real understanding of the development prospects of Moldova’s agricultural sector – nor any vision of Moldova’s place within the broader European market. Otherwise, over the past decade, European officials and advisors should have helped define our country’s specialization. We were never destined to become the “breadbasket” of the Union, but we could very well have aspired to the role of Europe’s fruit orchard. However, there is no sign of genuine interest from the European Union in supporting such a direction, nor is there any evidence that funding under accession policies has been allocated for purposes like irrigation or orchard development. There have also been no signals of support for fruit farmers affected by spring frosts, many of whom still haven’t received compensation. Instead, Brussels is pushing for Moldova to further open its market to EU food products. As part of the same revision of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) Agreement, we were obliged to expand imports of agricultural products by increasing quotas for pork and poultry, and introducing new quotas for frozen meat, milk, and butter. It’s not hard to understand how such decisions will affect domestic production of these goods. For clarity, let me refer to statistics once again: over the past ten years, exports in the category of products such as dairy and poultry eggs have fallen from $15 million in 2013 to $12 million in 2024. Meanwhile, imports in the same category have more than tripled – from $48.6 million to $156.9 million. So, while we are assured from high platforms that positive progress is being made on our fast-track path toward European integration, in practice, the current policy is only leading to further destruction of a traditional economic sector – and yet another turn in the cycle of impoverishment for the population.