Moldova Disrupts Disposal of Russian Ammunition in Transdniestria?

Vladimir Rotar Chisinau provokes Moscow to liquidate Russian depots in the left bank Will Russian ammunition be transported through Ukraine? In October, the Russian media unexpectedly wrote about the upcoming removal of weapons to Russia from depots in the Transdniestrian village of Cobasna. The source of this information was the words of the Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration of Moldova Nicu Popescu. In an interview to a Romanian TV channel, he said that about 20 thousand tons of ammunition will be removed from the Transdniestrian region “in the near future”. Moreover, according to him, their transit will pass through Ukraine, and this was allegedly agreed with all countries of the European Union. The statements by the Foreign Minister of the Republic of Moldova came as a surprise, perhaps even for the Russian side. After all, it seemed that the issue of the destruction of weapons hangs heavy in the air recently. But Popescu’s words lead to a conclusion that ammunition will be removed almost tomorrow. Recall that the initiative on the disposal of weapons in depots in Transdniestria belongs to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during his visit to the Moldovan capital. Then it seemed breakthrough: after all, Chisinau demanded removal of these weapons for many years. It is not surprising that Russia’s proposal was immediately supported in Moldova itself, and its Western partners via the European Union and even the United States. However, later, divergent views of Moscow and Chisinau on how to implement the Russian initiative were quickly revealed. The RM wanted to begin the destruction of arsenals as soon as possible and definitely with external assistance. Russia, in turn, was clearly in no hurry. This was explicitly said by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at a joint briefing with his Moldovan counterpart. He noted that a lot of preparatory work is needed (delivering related equipment, sending specialists, determining sources of funding, concluding contracts), which will take at least a year. Moreover, Lavrov hinted that the success of the process will directly depend on the progress in the Transdniestrian settlement, recalling that last time the removal of weapons from Cobasna stopped precisely because relations between Tiraspol and Chisinau aggravated. Moldova prefers to completely ignore the ‘Transdniestrian factor’ when discussing the disposal of ammunition. But this does not negate the fact that the arsenal is located on the left bank, uncontrolled by the official authorities. This means some will also have to negotiate with local administration. The Transdniestrian leader has already supported the initiative of Shoigu, but pointed to the need to audit the depots – obviously, referring to its conduct by Russian specialists. It is interesting that since then the Transdniestrian settlement has reached a dangerous impasse. Tiraspol blamed Chisinau for the breakdown of negotiations and new problems, and contacts between the parties fell to a minimum level. In addition, a certain chill is observed in Russian-Moldovan relations. The Kremlin clearly does not like the continuing anti-Russian rhetoric of the Sandu government, for example, regarding the withdrawal of Russian troops in Transdniestria, and the Western activity of President Igor Dodon is also unlikely to please. Perhaps, therefore, there was no further progress in the disposal of ammunition. Chisinau provokes Moscow After the June events, the government formed by the predominantly pro-European bloc ACUM announced its intention to restore relations with Russia, but these words are at variance with deeds. There is a feeling that Chisinau, on the contrary, is beginning to avoid contacts with Moscow. This is also confirmed by the constant postponements of Maia Sandu’s visit to the Russian capital, which Popescu went to prepare back in early September. In these circumstances, the initiative to dispose of ammunition is increasingly seen not as a ‘gift’ to Moldova, but rather as a clever trap. Chisinau is certainly afraid to stay one-on-one with Moscow in the negotiations, and, apparently, that’s why the Foreign Minister of Moldova traveled around the European capitals, trying to get maximum external support. This is despite the fact that Russia initially wanted to resolve this issue within the framework of bilateral relations, and did not plan to involve other countries, especially Western ones. Now, Nicu Popescu declares ‘the imminent removal of ammunition’, although, obviously, this is still very far away. Moreover, it is premature to talk about their transit through Ukraine – Russia will not go for it in the environment of a new round of tension in Russian-Ukrainian relations and the difficult situation in Donbas. Besides, Moscow meant their disposal locally, instead of removal to the Russian territory. Popescu himself admits that there is still no formal document which allows the Russian initiative to be implemented in practice: according to him, “there was only an exchange of views and political signals”. So what Chisinau wants to achieve trying to unilaterally solve the issue of Russian depots in the left bank? Most likely, Moldova deliberately disrupts the disposal of ammunition in Cobasna, as previously warned by RTA experts. Chisinau is well aware that Popescu’s diplomatic maneuvers and public statements cannot but irritate Moscow. But whether in fear of ‘letting down’ partners in the West, or under their direct pressure, Chisinau continues to behave aggressively in negotiations with the Kremlin, clearly forcing the Russian side to abandon the project. At the same time, it is important for the Moldovan authorities to present the case as if the disposal failed due to Moscow’s fault. Hence, outright provocations like ‘coordinated Ukrainian transit’, which in the current geopolitical realities can discredit the whole process for the Russian side. So far, Russia’s representatives do not comment on Popescu’s statements, probably hoping to settle the contradictions through cooperation between specialists of the defense bodies of the two countries. However, if Chisinau continues to press on the issue of depots, there is no doubt that a response will follow sooner or later. In this case, the RM can and will achieve a situational victory – freezing the Russian initiative – but will miss the historic chance to solve this long-standing problem inherited from the USSR.