What Will Igor Dodon and Vadim Krasnoselski Talk About?

Sergiu CHEBAN Experts do not expect breakthrough results from the Dodon-Krasnoselski meeting, but the fact that it will take place might somewhat stabilize the relations between the parties Late in June, President of Moldova Igor Dodon announced another meeting with Transdniestrian leader Vadim Krasnoselski to discuss bilateral relations. According to the head of state, the meeting should be held late in July or early in August this year. The previous meeting at this level took place at the end of October last year after the 5+2 Bratislava meeting failure and was mainly focused on issues from the so-called “Berlin +” package. During that meeting, the Moldovan leader not only expressed his intention to implement specific agreements, but also outlined the timelines for solving some problems. In particular, he voiced termination of 38 criminal cases against Transdniestrian officials and resolving telecommunications problems before the end of 2019. In addition, Igor Dodon agreed to consult on banking issues, as well as implement joint infrastructure projects – for example, to build a trolleybus line from Bender to the Severniy district through the village of Varnita. During the pandemic, relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol deteriorated noticeably and reached the next critical level. Instead of the obviously necessary cooperation, the parties began to strengthen the external borders and internal administrative line. All uncontrolled checkpoints on the border with Ukraine were closed and new checkpoints were deployed by Tiraspol authorities. Moreover, the parties regularly exchange harsh comments and accusations, depriving the negotiation process of the prospect to achieve even minimal results this year. The Moldovan president has already stated that he will insist on eliminating the checkpoints, deployed by Tiraspol as a temporary measure to reinforce lockdown, at a meeting with the Transdniestrian vis-a-vis. According to the head of state, “quarantine posts” impede the free movement of people on both Nistru banks. The Tiraspol administration, for its part, is in no hurry to voice plans for the meeting. Probably, it will once again focus on the pending issues of communication, banking sector and criminal cases. Meanwhile, such an early announcement of the meeting seemed not accidental to most experts. First of all, this may be due both to the need to smooth out the epidemiological situation and to stabilize the domestic political situation. In this context, restoring technical advantage over the opposition in parliament gives reason to believe that the current government will not resign in the very near future and will manage to implement certain agreements with Tiraspol. Major international participants are keenly interested in the contacts of the Moldovan president with the Transdniestrian administration. This can be the reason of U.S. Ambassador Dereck Hogan’s visit to Tiraspol. It seems to be important for Washington to clarify the prospects for the upcoming meeting and understand what specific agreements can be reached, especially from among those that can influence the internal political processes in Moldova. The international attention is obviously connected not so much with the complex of problems in the negotiation process, as with the Moldovan presidential elections planned for the fall and potential electoral reinforcement of the main candidates. As you know, Chisinau intends to provide residents of the left bank with the widest possible voting opportunities, and any “quarantine obstacles” should not become a hindrance. In addition, it can hardly be considered a coincidence that the announcement of the meeting of Dodon and Krasnoselski was made after the head of state returned from Moscow. Most likely, the Kremlin is not entirely happy about the current level of relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol, and wants to demonstrate its leading and determining role not only in relations between the parties, but also in the unification of the Moldovan state. However, no significant progress in the Transdniestrian settlement should be expected. Last week, Moscow decided to make its assessment of the situation in Moldova and Ukraine through one of the leading news agencies. And if comments on the Ukrainian agenda were made personally by Dmitry Kozak, then instructions to highlight the Moldovan issue were, apparently, given to the Russian Ambassador in Chisinau. The theses on the prematureness of security and the Russian military presence discussions were voiced and found some resonance in Chisinau. The negotiators seem to once again confirm their principled positions, and the Transdniestrian issue is resuming its normal state of reduced dynamics. In this regard, most experts do not dare predict drastic changes after the meeting of Igor Dodon and Vadim Krasnoselski. However, the very fact of this meeting can have a stabilizing effect and deter relations between the parties from further degradation.