Expert: Moldova’s President-Elect Is Expected to Take the Lead

Sergiu CEBAN How developments will unfold depends on whether Maia Sandu will pursue her own action plan or pass the initiative on to her predecessor The presidential election results confirmed by the Central Election Commission are now the subject to the Constitutional Court’s approval. The next step will only be to set a date for a ceremonial key handover from the current presidency to Maia Sandu. Meanwhile, the outgoing leader of the country, Igor Dodon, retains his grip demonstrating further political vigilance and confidence. While protocol preparations for the inauguration ceremony are underway, the internal political developments are progressing within their own logic. Thus, the previous week saw the first parliamentary session in the last two months, during which the democrats confirmed their withdrawal from the coalition with the socialists and the new parliamentary faction first showed itself in action. When considering the proposed bills, MPs showed unanimity in most cases. However, the PSRM and Pentru Moldova/SOR spoke negatively on some fundamental issues, such as the two-day voting in elections for citizens abroad. This fact gave rise to expert claims about coordinated actions between these factions. According to some analysts, this may show up more clearly when passing more important legislative initiatives: the law on the 2021 state budget, reducing powers of the president-elect or removing some agencies out of the presidential control. Meanwhile, Igor Dodon said that a new parliamentary majority should not be expected before the end of the year. With this in mind, the best option, in his opinion, could be a wide-ranging coalition format, consisting of the left and right wing parties. Apparently, the incumbent president’s retinue believes that the Sandu-led opposition forces need some time to face a harsh irresistible reality in order to curb their ambitions and start adjusting their positions to the existing context. Obviously, any vital political decisions are simply not possible before the president-elect takes office. Only following her inauguration, Maia Sandu will have the opportunity to prove himself as an arbiter who has consulted all political forces and now can propose her own plan of action, and probably even a temporary coalition and a cabinet of ministers to lay the groundwork for the early parliamentary elections next year. In case of the pro-European parties’ failure to form a political majority, Igor Dodon quite categorically states his refusal to dissolve the legislature in the run up to the winter and the growing pandemic. Most likely, such a confidence rests upon the numerical advantage in the parliamentary corps ready to provide a long-term political support for Ion Chicu’s minority government, which it was once between November 2019 and March 2020. In this scenario, the socialist leader also outlines the likely date for the parliamentary elections - next fall. Apparently, this is based on expectations that by mid-2021 the European continent will cope with the pandemic and the Moldovan economy will show the first signs of recovery. Therefore, the cumulative effect of a “successful” epidemic outcome should create more favorable positions for starting the PSRM’s election campaign. To retain the unique political positions for another year without Moscow’s resource support will be extremely difficult for the Party of Socialists and Igor Dodon. Perhaps, this is what the president will try to convince his Russian colleagues of during the announced meeting with Dmitry Kozak. Ahead of the trip, Maia Sandu presented an unexpected “gift” to Dodon, making several incautious foreign policy statements in an interview with one of the Ukrainian publications, which might serve as additional convincing arguments for the upcoming meeting in the Kremlin. What caused such a haste in voicing position on the Transdniestrian settlement is not yet clear. Stating basically nothing new about the Russian troops’ withdrawal, federalization and smuggling, Maia Sandu provoked Moscow into a very impulsive and lasting reaction. Apparently, Moscow expected the new Moldovan president to have a more balanced and fresh view of long-standing problems. Some experts agree that Ms. Sandu has made her first strategic mistake, since drawing the Kremlin’s attention to the left bank and updating the Transdniestrian issue in Russian patriotic discourse will unlikely soften Moscow’s position in the region’s fate negotiations. It’s time for the president-elect to understand that the pre-election period is over and that the country is waiting for more specifics and certainty from the new leader, rather than bold rostrum statements. Maia Sandu should barely expect a smooth ride because now all her words, actions and political emphasis will be the subject of close attention from both internal and external audience.