Opinion: “The Parliamentary Campaign Has Actually Kicked Off”

Anton ŠVEC

The second round of the presidential election will take place in a week and a half, but the major opposition parties are focused on preparing for the parliamentary campaign

After the first round of the presidential election and the de facto failed referendum, the PAS is out of the left field. The incumbent regime is not able to recover quickly from the 20 October failure, despite the solid international impetus expressed in a series of Western statements in support of Moldova’s European integration course and the fight against Moscow’s hybrid influence. There is a discord and lack of systematic behavior of the party activists amid a disgusting nationalist scandal, which was provoked by insulting remarks about the ethnic origin of the main rival of Maia Sandu. The protracted “debate about debates” also confirms the discord and does not add political points to the president, who arrogantly ignored communication with her opponents before the first round. However, now that there are reasonable doubts about the success of the campaign, she not only hastily armed herself with conciliatory speeches, but also offered to organize debates. Alexandr Stoianoglo, who is capable of unleashing an extensive list of grievances against the ruling regime and Sandu personally, including from his experience of political persecution, predictably agreed. However, then the head of state’s team clearly started to wriggle, creating a scandal around the moderator, persuading the pro-government TV channels to refuse to broadcast, etc. Apparently, they are very afraid of their mentee stepping out of her comfort zone. In fact, the idea of inviting Alexandr Stoianoglo to talk was from the very beginning a loser for Maia Sandu, who in recent years has lost the skill of speaking without preparation in competitive conditions and answering awkward questions. Her rival and any competent moderator like the proposed former TV presenter Gheorghe Gonta are able to cause such problems for Sandu that her anti-rating will find a new bottom. The advisors of the head of state have not forgotten how and for what the regime dismissed Gheorghe Gonta’s wife from her job - it would be shortsighted to rely on his condescension. So eventually their patron wanted to debate without moderators at all, to which Stoianoglo gave the go-ahead. In any case, PAS is bound up in trying to protect its most valuable symbolic asset, artificially made a “dummy of European integration”, personally attracting Western sponsorship and political support. The “fire brigade” to avoid disaster by means of political rushes and falsifications is thus losing sight of the key electoral event of the current cycle looming on the horizon - the upcoming parliamentary elections. Although the ruling party’s position on this is even more precarious - a unified majority in the new convocation is out of the question. Even the probability of the best result among all parties and blocs seems low at the moment. In turn, the competing political forces have already entered the phase of preparation for the parliamentary campaign, demonstrating their involvement in the country’s affairs as much as possible. The decisive strategies of the Communists, the Socialists, Ion Ceban’s MAN party and Renato Usatii’s Our Party can hardly be considered a false start. Alexandr Stoianoglo’s hypothetical victory in the second round of elections will result in his inevitable confrontation with a parliamentary majority that has lost the people’s trust and a bankrupt government. This would certainly lead to talk of early parliamentary elections, i.e. the parties might not have to wait another two months before the official start of campaigning. In particular, the PCRM performed as thoughtfully as possible, adopting two topics that is plain to see. First, the Communist leader Vladimir Voronin accused Igor Dodon personally of disrupting the negative vote in the referendum, estimating that the PSRM leader’s idea of boycott cost about 50,000 “no” answers. Had it not been for it, no falsifications and last-minute violations would have saved the government from failure: “We have been let down again, for the umpteenth time, by Igor Dodon, who calls himself a great politician. He invented a boycott of the referendum. Boycott is neither backward nor forward. We have preliminarily calculated - he stole more than 50 thousand votes. Naturally, he did it at Maia Sandu’s request. First, he made her prime minister, then he made her president”. Secondly, only PCRM declared its intention to legally challenge the referendum results due to the proven ballot box stuffing in foreign polling stations. In other words, the Communists, opposing the Socialists, seek to position themselves as a political force ready to fight for the choice of deceived citizens and against the European integration dictatorship of the parliamentary majority. If this strategy is followed, Vladimir Voronin’s team may gain a certain credit of trust from citizens in the future. On the contrary, Ion Ceban commented on the results of the referendum, emphasizing that it was his party’s campaigning that saved Moldova’s European choice. The Chisinau mayor criticized the incumbent authorities and said that the results “would have looked different if not for MAN”. Ion Ceban, who has predominantly Romanian patronage, goes into the campaign opposing the incumbent regime, with the intention of gaining the largest representation in parliament and making PAS a junior, subordinate partner. In this sense, voting “in favor” of the special constitutional powers of a parliamentary majority was a rational choice for MAN. Meanwhile, Renato Usatii has already cleverly gained access to the parliamentary rostrum by luring disgraced MP Victoria Cazacu, who was kicked out of PAS because of corruption charges against her daughter, to the Our Party. In general, pressure on close opponents is becoming a specialty of the PAS - even Vladimir Plahotniuc was not so unscrupulous as to use it. However, the current regime does not shy away from anything: Dodon’s amenability was achieved through threats not only to his personal freedom, but also to the safety of his family members. As for Renato Usatii, the politician who gained 213,000 votes on 20 October is now actively involved in the bidding, attacking the government or Igor Dodon personally, but keeping the door open for both Maia Sandu and Alexandr Stoianoglo. It must be assumed that both rivals have already approached him with proposals, including at least a package of security guarantees and a quiet parliamentary campaign for Our Party. However, Renato Usatii needs to consider not only the price here and now, but also to accurately predict the winner in the second round, since a wrong bet could result in subsequent repressions both at home and abroad.