Unirea Around the Corner?

Our political landscape is marked by a number of issues that have been “simmering” for years, yet fail to stir significant public outrage simply because they seem like pipe dreams – far removed from practical implementation and from having any real impact on the country’s actual policies. For a time, “unirea” was one such dream. But over the past six months, this issue has been stoked from several sides at once, apparently with different motives and goals. The “instigator” of the new unionist wave was Maia Sandu, who stated in a January interview with an international podcast that she would vote “yes” in a referendum on unification with Romania. She later elaborated on her point, explaining that if the scenario of EU accession fails for some reason, Chisinau will consider other options. Equally controversial was Sandu’s recent remark describing Moldovan statehood as a “historical injustice” that must be rectified. Meanwhile, Romanian President Nicusor Dan has confirmed that Romania is ready to accept Moldova as a member as soon as its citizens so desire. Incidentally, according to data from the local polling firm INSCOP, more than 70% of the population in the neighboring country supports unification. In our case, however, the situation is different: a survey conducted by iData shows that in Moldova, as before, about 40% of respondents support unification. To some, it may seem that a consensus is actively forming and the process is gaining momentum. However, a sober look at the numbers paints a somewhat different picture. Undoubtedly, the percentage of supporters of the two states’ merger has long ceased to be marginal. After all, we are talking about nearly half of our country’s citizens. Moreover, against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, deteriorating relations with Russia, and accelerated European integration, unirea is gradually transforming from a historical-romantic narrative into a strategic security scenario. That said, if one looks at the situation through the eyes of a sociologist or political strategist, it becomes clear that, under normal circumstances, uniting the two states at this stage remains difficult. Neither Moldova nor Romania, the latter currently immersed in a deep internal crisis, possesses the political, social, or geopolitical foundations necessary to implement such a project quickly and without conflict. Moldova’s Constitution and Article 142 unequivocally state that revising provisions on sovereignty and independence requires the approval of a majority of citizens registered on the electoral rolls. According to the Central Election Commission’s data for 2025, there are nearly 3.3 million such voters. Consequently, for the referendum to pass, approximately 1.65 million “yes” votes are needed. If we compare this threshold with the results of Maia Sandu and the PAS party in the last election, there is a shortfall of about 700,000 votes. Thus, as of today, the math simply does not add up, due to a significant shortage of supporters. Therefore, today all unionist speculations serve more as an alternative scenario and exist as a potential option in case the regional situation deteriorates sharply. However, this certainly cannot be viewed as a plan that can be implemented within the existing legal framework. Beyond idle statistics, there are other factors that cannot be resolved through a referendum. Among them is the status of the Transnistrian region, which is complicated by the presence of Russian military forces and old army depots. Furthermore, there is a difficult-to-overcome pan-European consensus that we will join the EU as part of a joint package with Ukraine. And finally, there is Moscow’s reaction, which views Moldovan-Romanian unionism as a strategic threat. Although, to be honest, for a certain segment of the Moldovan elite, the very possibility of unification serves more as a defensive tool in dialogue with the Kremlin: they can threaten it by saying that if Russia increases the pressure, the republic will ultimately fall under the Romanian and NATO umbrella. Indirect signs also confirm that the issue of unirea provokes a strong reaction from Moscow. A telling example was the recent trip by Socialist leader Igor Dodon to Minsk and his meeting with the Belarusian president, during which Lukashenko was reportedly “horrified by rumors of Moldova’s willingness to become part of another country”. It appears that the Kremlin has decided to signal in this way that it views the possible annexation of Moldova as unacceptable to its interests. For Russia, this would not only mean the symbolic disappearance of yet another post-Soviet state, but also a direct expansion of the EU and NATO’s sphere of influence at least as far as the Dniester River. From a military standpoint, it would represent a clear shift in the balance of power in the Black Sea region. Given all circumstances, the most interesting question is under what conditions the idea of “unirea” could be put into practice. And the most obvious answer is: only in an extraordinary situation. As historical experience shows, such processes almost never occur under peaceful, calm conditions. And a radical geopolitical restructuring requires a strong external impetus, be it war, a security crisis, or a sharp shift in the international balance of power. And just in time, on the night of May 29, a Russian drone struck a residential high-rise building in Galati, Romania, in close proximity to the Moldovan-Romanian border. Nicusor Dan convened a meeting of the Supreme Council of National Defense, and the President of the European Commission stated that Russia’s aggressive war had crossed yet another line. Thus, despite the now-familiar incidents of UAVs penetrating European Union airspace, this time the incident effectively placed Romania at the center of attention for the EU and NATO. The only question remaining: is this a mere coincidence, or are we witnessing a sequence of events being orchestrated to build the necessary critical mass for an important political decision? In our view, the current geopolitical turbulence may contain the kind of “extraordinary catalyst” capable of accelerating unification through force majeure circumstances. If Romania finds itself at the epicenter of regular direct Russian attacks, the argument that Moldova and the Romanian citizens living there must be protected takes on a completely different tone. In such a scenario, it is theoretically possible that we could break away from the joint negotiation package with Ukraine and join the EU not through the standard enlargement procedure, but by joining Romania as a member state. There have already been precedents in the history of European integration for non-standard solutions under pressure of circumstances, and the closest example in this regard is the reunification of West and East Germany. However, what seems most realistic under current conditions is not even formal unirea, but rather the accelerated creation of a single political and economic space under the umbrella of an interim quasi-union structure. In fact, many of its elements already exist today: these include Romanian citizenship for hundreds of thousands of Moldovan citizens and close trade and economic cooperation. Moreover, Romania has long been a key energy and infrastructure partner for Moldova, and our elites are increasingly integrating into Romanian and European structures. The idea of unionism, which for decades was considered a utopia, is today, one way or another, gradually turning into a backup plan for geopolitical survival. But despite the fact that the temperature of unionist discourse is gradually rising, there is still a significant gap between heated debates and actual unirea. It is impossible to bridge this gap with patriotic statements or optimistic public opinion polls. What is needed is either a radical shift in the electoral landscape or an external shock that will reshape the very coordinate system and open a historic “window of opportunity”.