After PAS: Who Will Orchestrate the Transition of Power?

Amid declining support for PAS and a growing public demand for change, the United States and the European Union are focusing their efforts on ensuring that any potential political transition takes place in a controlled, calm manner and without major upheavals for Moldova

Historically, Moldovan politics has followed its own rules and cycles, where almost every new ruling force that came to power promising a complete transformation of the state eventually faced a crisis of public trust, growing disappointment among citizens, and an inevitable decline in popularity. The Communists, the succession of pro-European integration alliances, and Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democrats – all of them built what appeared to be unshakable power structures, only to leave the political scene following almost the same pattern. First came years of invulnerability and a dismissive attitude toward any criticism, followed by problems and scandals that did not initially appear fatal, and finally a rapid, almost dramatic collapse in approval ratings. Maia Sandu and PAS have now come close to crossing the same line. The question is no longer whether they will be able to restore voter support, but rather how manageable Moldova’s political transformation will prove to be. A sequence of political and social crises, culminating in June and July, became a serious test for the ruling party. It made the most sophisticated attempts to stabilize the situation, changed its communication strategy, intensified outreach to the public, and sought to present itself as if it were providing a “more honest” explanation of ongoing developments. However, the loss of public trust cannot be overcome solely through administrative tools or media campaigns. Moreover, at a certain point, public perceptions of those in power begin to change not because of individual events, but due to a firmly established negative image. Once this stage is reached, the processes become virtually irreversible. It is precisely this turning point that, apparently, we are witnessing now. A study published last week by the sociological company IMAS became particularly indicative in this regard, clearly demonstrating a significant shift in public attitudes toward the current authorities. One of the key conclusions was the sharp decline in the level of trust in the president’s explanations. In other words, three quarters of citizens no longer perceive Sandu’s official position as credible. No less important is how society perceives the situation with corruption. The majority believe that in recent years this problem has not only failed to disappear, but has also taken on new forms. This is particularly significant given that the fight against this harmful phenomenon was one of the central elements of the PAS brand, built around contrasting itself with the “kleptocratic” regimes of the past. The party’s main political capital was public faith in the concept of “good people” who had come to replace the old political system. However, the bubble of this “technocratic alternative” appears to have burst with the same sound as all the previous ones. Once the perception of the government’s moral superiority disappears, the foundation of its political stability also begins to collapse. The distinctive feature of the current model of governance, as is well known, is its personalization around the head of state. For the majority of citizens, PAS is associated primarily with Maia Sandu herself. From the very beginning, the president was the party’s main political asset, its central symbol, and the primary source of electoral support. At the same time, however, she has also been and remains its greatest vulnerability. As long as Sandu’s approval ratings and public trust remained high, the ruling party was able to offset its internal problems through the authority of the presidency. However, with the current reverse trend underway, PAS’ political capital is inevitably shrinking as well. In the long term, this creates a serious challenge, as Sandu’s term will come to an end in a few years, inevitably raising the difficult question of finding a new leader capable of preserving the party’s electoral standing. Repeating the results of 2021 or even 2025 will be extremely difficult, as the public demand for renewal will undoubtedly be linked to alternative political forces. Sandu, in essence, has about two years of her mandate remaining but given the current trajectory, it is difficult to imagine that she will once again be able to carry PAS to victory in the 2029 parliamentary elections. Thus, the medium-term outlook for the current political structure is becoming increasingly uncertain. Nevertheless, Moldova continues to retain geopolitical importance for its Western partners, as in recent years it has gained much greater significance in the context of regional security, EU relations with Eastern Europe, and the situation surrounding Ukraine. At the same time, Washington and Brussels are interested not in keeping a specific party in power but in preserving the country’s overall geopolitical course. The main concern for the West is the growing likelihood of an uncontrolled domestic political crisis in Moldova, which could lead to a sharp rise in the influence of forces advocating a revision of the country’s foreign policy orientation. Therefore, in the near future, increased attention to Moldovan politics from development partners can be expected. Certain parallels can be drawn with the period of 2018-2019, when it also became clear that Plahotniuc’s regime was gradually losing its stability. Despite the Democratic Party’s outward display of control over state institutions, European embassies had already recognized the inevitability of fundamental changes in Moldovan politics. At that time, US Ambassador Derek Hogan played an important role, becoming one of the key architects of the current political order. Today, the situation looks somewhat different, yet the logic of external involvement in political processes remains largely the same. Recognizing the risk of sharp destabilization, international partners are seeking to understand potential scenarios for future developments in advance. For this reason, the growing diplomatic presence of the United States in Moldova is by no means accidental. A new ambassador is expected to be approved soon after completing the necessary procedures in the Senate. At the same time, an American diplomat has been appointed to lead the OSCE Mission. Earlier, the US Embassy in Chisinau was joined by Marcel Bolboaca-Negru, a senior defense adviser with experience working within the structures of the US State Department. Apparently, this team has been tasked with ensuring that Moldova’s political process remains manageable amid declining public trust and the gradual dismantling of the current system of power. Despite the traditional August lull and the upcoming national holidays, the coming months could become another turning point in Moldova’s political trajectory. Amid declining support for the current authorities and a growing public demand for change, Western diplomats are likely to focus their efforts on ensuring that any potential political transition proceeds in a maximally controlled and orderly manner, without major shocks for the country.