Plahotniuc’s Last Rush?

According to experts, deoligarchization of Moldova will not be completed in a few months or even a year. Vlad Plahotniuc in one way or another will remain in power – the only question is whether he will still have the upper head. Decisive breakthrough of the Democrats RTA regular expert Sergey Cheban is sure that the next few days will be the moment of truth for Democrats that will determine the fate of the party and their leader for the coming years. “The political crisis in Moldova has never been so unpredictable and absurd. So far unsuccessful negotiations between the Socialists and ACUM on de-oligarchization of the country clearly show an interesting result of the Plahotniuc’s rule: the opposition has a real chance to overthrow the tyrant, but either afraid, or do not fully believe in their happiness. Unfortunately, this is a deplorable result – it turns out that the leaders of the largest parties do not fully believe in democracy,” he says. “Right now comes the most difficult moment when everyone needs to make a choice. Oddly enough, this is the most dangerous time for the Democratic Party of Moldova – if today the leaders of the pro-European bloc and Socialists give up their ambitions and declare a real war against Plahotniuc, it will mean overcoming of a massive psychological barrier, a public defiance of tyranny. After that, the anti-oligarchic coalition will have much more will to finish what it started, and Plahotniuc will have fewer opportunities to confront opponents,” Cheban notes. According to the expert, the PDM office is well aware of the significance of the moment and it is no coincidence that the central square of Chisinau was reserved until 9 June inclusive. “Apparently, the Democrats themselves have not fully decided what they will fight and what they will stand for in Great National Assembly Square. The situation can develop in completely different ways, but it is already clear that it is not in favor of the PDM. So the Plahotniuc’s team has mobilized the district offices and gathered the active core from all over Moldova. Experts suggest that the crowd will include professional and well-trained ‘street fighters’, employees of private security companies and even law-enforcers in plain clothes,” reminds the analyst. “Plahotniuc gathers a powerful people’s ‘fist’ for the x day. The question is where it will attack, and here the main oligarch of the country has at least three obvious options with one common goal – to keep power,” he stresses. How to keep power RTA regular expert Christian Russu believes that the PDM protest is all-in-one, and it is easy to give it any leitmotif and climate. “It could be calls both against and in support of early elections or a ‘popular cry’ for all the ‘caring deputes’ to unite under the banner of the Democratic Party and to ‘save the country’. But first of all, the crowd gathered by the PDM will be a ‘barrier’ against the creation of an undesirable coalition for the Democrats in the Moldovan Parliament,” the expert notes. According to him, recent developments have shown that the ACUM-PSRM alliance is still a possible option, especially after yesterday’s statement by one of the bloc’s parties, PAS, about the readiness to vote for the speaker from the Socialists. “Unexpected concession of pro-Europeans creates a background at least for ad hoc partnership of ACUM and PSRM.  So, both for the adoption of the long-announced package of ‘anti-oligarchic’ bills and clearing of state institutions – and this is a real threat to the long-term rule of Plahotniuc,” the analyst says. Russu believes that in this situation we can expect that the protests will move on the radical track. “The PDM, obviously, kept in mind the possibility of an agreement of its rivals and has mobilized both the active core on the ground and its youth wing. At a minimum, an intentionally ‘inspired’ crowd can easily block or even capture the Parliament building, thus preventing a new meeting until early elections are announced,” the expert says. The analyst is also confident that the Moldovan politics is now entering a critical period, which will determine the future of the country in the coming years. “The unofficial master of Moldova, perhaps for the first time in several years, found himself in a relatively vulnerable position, faced with the prospect of losing controls over the country.  However, the window of opportunity for his opponents is extremely small. The Party of Socialists and the pro-European bloc ACUM, in fact, have only a few days left to come to some mutual consensus and to oppose the odious oligarch as one. Otherwise, the current regime has every chance to survive, and then Plahotniuc’s opponents will have very hard times,” Russu believes.