Dmitry Astakhov: Bolton’s Visit Will Make Chisinau Do Some Serious Reflection

According to RTA expert, the results of John Bolton’s meeting with the Moldovan leadership confirm that no one is going to take care of Chisinau any more Commenting on the first results of the visit, Astakhov drew attention to the changed tone of Bolton’s entire trip to Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova. “The adviser to Trump withstood usual ‘politesse’:  banal for the U.S. expressions about cooperation, democracy and support were heard at every meeting in all three countries. An observer from any expert camp could notice in the words of Bolton desired and pleasing meaning: some have found the typical message that “the US is instigating”, others – Washington’s continued support for the pro-Western course of Moldova and Ukraine. However, the tone and overall media effect of Bolton’s arrival has changed,” the expert says. “Previously, such trips caused a storm, for example, in the Russian and pro-Russian media. This time there was nothing like that, which means that the situation has changed, and greatly,” he emphasizes. The author notes that relations between the United States and Russia are going through a stage of tacit agreement to ‘change approaches’. “This is not a ceasefire, and not warming. If we turn to the psychology, it is rather a stage of acceptance. Both camps understand that confrontation is meaningless and resource-consuming. Although Moscow and Washington are used to using the image of an ‘external enemy’ to solve domestic political problems, now it does not seem to work. This means that the good old days are coming to an end for US foreign policy partners, when money was given only for consistent anti-Russian rhetoric,” Astakhov notes. According to the analyst, Moldova can become the scene of very non-trivial geopolitical stories. “As predicted by colleagues on the RTA earlier, Bolton supported the Russian initiative on the ammunition disposal in unrecognized Transdniestria. Trump’s adviser even talked about a kind of ‘coalition’ on this issue, so that the US could also offer its developments. A year ago, no one would have believed that such statements are real,” the author states. According to Dmitry Astakhov, the joint work of US and Russian military specialists in Moldova only at first glance seems to be something extraordinary. In fact, the expert believes that the cooperation between the defense agencies has so far remained the main link and channel of healthy, balanced communication between Moscow and Washington. “It is obvious to everyone that neither Russia nor the United States expected to bring the matter to a direct clash. Therefore, practical interaction has always existed between the security agencies, at least in order to avoid irreversible consequences in the regions where the armies of Moscow and Washington ‘worked’. It is not surprising that the restoration of relations can begin with the joint work of the military, for example, in Moldova. Probably, both the Kremlin and the White House intuitively understand that the case of a common mission for peace without politics can be a good reason to reset relations,” Astakhov believes. According to Astakhov, the results of Bolton’s visit will make Chisinau do some serious reflection: in the near future, Washington will abandon past approaches and will not support local authorities simply for its ‘good looks’ and declarations. “The United States got involved in the end in a rather unpleasant story with Plahotniuc. During a long time they forgave ex-leader of the Democratic Party only because he unleashed a real anti-Russian hysteria. As a result, Plahotniuc got out of control and became a headache, which was not so easy to get rid of,” the expert notes. “It’s been made clear to Chisinau that it is time to work independently. No geopolitical rhetoric will take the Moldovan authorities out of the maelstrom of internal problems, and they can count on assistance only on an absolutely pragmatic basis – support in exchange for results and concrete steps. It is possible that the first requirement of Washington and a kind of test for maturity will be just the disposal of ammunition in Cobasna. In order for the process to start and work, Moldova will have to seriously reconsider its approaches to Moscow’s interests in the region, and at least to curtail the anti-Russian rhetoric. Especially if it ceases to bring the previous dividends,” the expert notes.