Constitutional Court’s Decision: Point or Comma in the Political Crisis?

Sergiu CEBAN Even despite the Constitutional Court’s verdict, the tough confrontation between the main protagonists of Moldovan politics in the coming months will not disappear and is to only change its form and acquire a more noticeable electoral connotation. Yesterday, the Constitutional Court actually launched the electoral campaign in Moldova, after its verdict confirmed there are grounds for terminating the powers of the current parliamentary convocation. The state of emergency remains the only obstacle for the future presidential decree on legislature dissolution to the entry into force and to appoint the election date. In theory, in the near future, the Constitutional Court should begin considering the legality of the last State of Emergency introduction in order to put an end to the protracted internal political crisis. Maia Sandu decided to personally attend the court session and voice her arguments in favor of early elections. Experts’ opinions on this matter divided: some saw this as an attempt to put pressure on the High Court, others regarded it as another manifestation of Sandu's political dedication. Others even saw populist and electoral signs in such a behavior. There is no doubt that the head of state has practically achieved the goal set, the maximum effect of which can be achieved only in the event of an early election, that is, in June or July this year. The fact that Maia Sandu is somewhat vague about her future intentions and plans to only "soon" issue a corresponding decree, indicates the absence of the entire set of necessary legal components that could guarantee the final segment (from the date of signing the decree to the date of the elections) does not stretch for an indefinite period. It was predictable, Igor Dodon condemned the Court's decision and said that an attempt was made to usurp power in the country. Therefore, the parliament may well not submit to attempts to terminate its powers. It is clear that the leader of the Socialist Party suffered a major political defeat, therefore, his rhetoric is maximally saturated with targeted and mobilization signals to his supporters about his readiness to continue the fight against political opponents and hold out to the end. However, the likelihood that the PSRM will show open disobedience to the Highest Court’s decision seems to be small, therefore, the socialists and their political associates will oppose president's plans by legal methods, including administrative resources. Much will now depend on when and with what result the Constitutional Court will finish its consideration of the issue regarding the legality of the state of emergency. There is reason to believe that even if the current state of emergency is recognized as unlawful by the court, the parliamentary majority represented by PSRM and "Shor/For Moldova" may re-vote it, technically changing the procedural aspects, and thereby prolong its validity. In addition, other administrative levers of influence on the situation and the president can be used in the process of raising funds for the elections. Apparently, by creating permanent difficulties, the Socialist Party plans to force Maia Sanda to agree at least on a mutually acceptable voting date, as well as agree on the minimum parameters and rules for the election campaign. Most likely, the main task facing the parliamentary majority today is the need to gain time in order for the parliament to stay functional and to delay the official start of the electoral period until the second half of the year. This disposition will make it possible to introduce a number of amendments to the electoral code, including to stop the activity of the "parallel electorate" abroad or to completely cut it off. In addition, the mandate of the current Central Election Commission expires on June 17, so the new composition of the commission, if there is enough time, can be formed mainly from among the members loyal to the parliamentary majority in order to ensure they have additional advantages in organizing elections. The new confrontation phase will most likely require also some decisive actions from Maia Sandu not to allow this domestic political affair to develop into a lifelong saga. Some experts believe that the president should hurry up with signing a decree indicating a clear date for the elections, which can automatically come into force from the moment the next decision of the Constitutional Court is announced. Such a step should at least deprive the socialists and their partners of the opportunity to promptly re-establish the state of emergency and stock up on the necessary time resources. It must be assumed that yesterday, in a sense, the point of no return was passed in the ongoing renovation process of the Moldovan political system, which was launched following the presidential elections last autumn. It is quite obvious that the tough confrontation between the main actors of the Moldovan politics won't stop in the coming months, but will only change its form taking on a much more noticeable electoral overtone. It is possible that the foreign emissaries will pay visits to the leader of the Socialist Party in the coming days. They will show how strong and robust Igor Dodon is to continue his active resistance to the ongoing processes which are expected to result in the new political configuration in Moldova for the next 8-10 years. Maia Sandu in the coming days will most likely exploit the unjustified tactics of Dodon, who "against the will of the people" impedes the natural course of events and does nothing but delays the renewal process of the country's legislative body.