The Perfect Storm for Moldova's Leadership

The gas, fuel, pandemic and Transdniestrian crises have seriously overshadowed the outset of the Action and Solidarity Party's rule, which is already losing popular support

Vladimir ROTAR, RTA: The new Moldovan authorities are definitely not to be envied now. A hundred days have not passed since the Action and Solidarity Party fully took over the watch of governing the country, and it has already been crushed by a whole pile of the most difficult problems. Even though each of them individually would be a serious test, especially for the “rookies” from PAS. Naturally, the priority issue that has been on everyone's lips for the last month is the extension of the gas contract between Moldova and Gazprom. The peculiar conjuncture in the European market of natural gas, which developed for various reasons, has led to a galloping increase in prices for this most important energy resource, especially during the autumn-winter season. The cost of gas has already beaten all possible historical records, confidently crossing the barrier of a thousand dollars per thousand cubic meters. Nevertheless, while the quotes were growing by leaps and bounds, the Moldovan leadership demonstrated Spartan reserve, even despite the imminent completion of the current contract with the Russian gas monopolist and the need to renegotiate it obviously on new conditions. The head of state inadvertently stated that negotiations on a new contract is the exclusive MoldovaGaz prerogative, and the government and the presidency are not supposed to be involved. At that time, both the right and the left opposition, and the expert community paid attention to the incorrectness of such, if we may call it so, “tactics”. As the situation continued to deteriorate, the Cabinet of Ministers did engage in a dialogue with Gazprom, thereby disproving the president's not very insightful arguments. As you know, for Moscow, the “gas issue” is traditionally not only about the economy, but also about politics, and good relations between the Kremlin and the gas recipient country, as a rule, provide good discounts for the latter. A striking example is the recent gas deal between Russia and Hungary with a price of only $ 350 per cubic meter. Moldova is also familiar with this approach firsthand – using established ties with the Russian president, Igor Dodon used to successfully obtain “discounts” for gas as well. However, Maia Sandu, voluntarily or not, has not yet used this obvious tool. It seems that the primary goal for her is only to stand as far as possible from the problem and an unpredictably sad resolution. And there is no doubt that it will be such, especially since in October gas for Moldova, according to the contract extended for a month, will cost almost $ 800. An increase in prices for natural gas will inevitably lead to an increase in local tariffs, which is especially sad ahead of cold weather. ANRE has already announced an increase of 35%, there are forecasts of a fifty percent increase in the spring. But these are just approximate estimates – the reality may be even more painful. The situation is also getting worse in the fuel market, where the number of recent price increases has been in double digits. The attempt of the ruling party to intervene turned out to be so disastrous that prices began to shift almost daily and surely not downwards. As a result, the highest price of gasoline in the republic history is now reached. The situation with energy resources, together with global trends, accelerate the prices of a wide range of consumer goods, including essential goods, and even basic food including, for example, bakery products. Against this background, the news from the front of confronting the pandemic is not at all encouraging. The authorities, in fact, have lost the initiative here, too: the number of cases is growing rapidly, the burden on the health care system is becoming more and more unbearable every day, and immunization rate has dropped sharply. There is already the need to take serious restrictive measures, such as mandatory presentation of vaccination certificates, which, apparently, should encourage citizens to get vaccinated more actively. However, this is unlikely to be enough - if forecasts of three thousand cases per day voiced by Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita come true, the government will face a serious dilemma: introduce much tougher quarantine measures or finally let the epidemiological situation take its course. Behind this pile of problems, an average citizen somewhat loses the sight of the Transdniestrian settlement, but even there the state of affairs causes serious concern. Judging by the signals from Tiraspol, the local administration does not intend to soft-pedal the recent restrictions for its vehicles. On the contrary, officials in the region have tightened their rhetoric, hinting at early retaliatory measures. So far, the attempts of the Moldovan leadership to respond to the "fires" that break out in one or another area look frankly lame. It is clear that the ruling party was out of luck: instead of a calm start of ruling the country with massive Western financial and diplomatic support, it got into a natural perfect storm where a clear horizon is not visible in any way. The only more or less successful step by the authorities – raising pensions – was literally lost in a pile of socio-economic and pandemic problems. It is curious that the opposition  and not the socialist-communists, but quite pro-European MPs from the Dignity and Truth platform - has already announced its intention to start protests after a hundred-day mark of the new government's work. And other forces may well join them, including those on the left flank. The President and her entourage will have to react somehow and probably adjust their plans, especially given the significantly dropped ratings of PAS and the growth of protest moods in society. Most likely, one of the consequences of the improper management of the current crises will be an even shorter term allotted to the Gavrilita government. We can also assume an increase in activity to attract various grant and loan funds, which will plug the "holes" emerging in the social sector and the economy, coupled with a further struggle to gain control over the key state institutions and crackdown on the opposition and the media.