Economist: GDP Was Artificially Kept in Positive Territory While the Real Economy Is Weakening

According to data from Moldova’s National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s GDP grew by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2026. However, economist Marin Gospodarenco argues that this positive figure conceals a more troubling reality. He notes that gross value added across the economy declined by 0.1%, meaning that real production did not increase compared to the same period last year. GDP growth was supported in part by higher net taxes on products rather than by an expansion of productive economic activity, bani.md reports. The economist stresses that the most alarming development concerns investment. Gross capital formation made a negative contribution of 3.9 percentage points to GDP growth. In his view, this is a key warning signal, as long-term economic growth is impossible without investment in production, technology, and infrastructure. Gospodarenco also points to declines in several important sectors. Construction contracted by 12.9%, real estate activities fell by 7.8%, and the information and communications sector shrank by 8.1%. The decline in the IT sector is particularly concerning, he notes, because it is typically a source of high value-added output, exports, and competitive wages. At the same time, some sectors recorded positive results. Industrial production grew by 6.1%, transport by 6.6%, and exports of goods and services increased by 10.8%. According to the expert, these industries helped the economy avoid stagnation or even a contraction. Gospodarenco argues that Moldova continues to consume more than it invests, limiting its long-term development potential. He believes the current growth model is approaching its limits and must be reoriented toward investment, productivity, and competitiveness rather than relying primarily on consumption.