Will the New Prime Minister Put Moldova Into Reverse?

The ideas of the potential prime minister are not only, in some respects, outlandish by Moldovan standards but for the most part run counter to what has been happening in the country under the PAS regime over the past five years

So, as early as next week, barring any unforeseen circumstances, Moldova will have a new prime minister: Vasile Tofan. He’s a man with a resume that would be the envy of any Western admirer, of whom there are plenty in our country. His education includes prestigious universities in the U.S. and the EU; his work experience includes American and European campaigns; and his professional background is in entrepreneurship, investments, and banking. It’s peculiar that, even before taking office, Tofan managed to get himself embroiled in a scandal right off the bat. It must be the aura of the ruling regime. The fact is that even before he was announced as a candidate for prime minister, he published a sort of manifesto or vision of what he sees as the ideal profile for someone in this position and the main directions for reform. He cited Argentine President Javier Milei, the “reformer-surgeon”, as a role model. Naturally, this reference point did not sit well with many – the leader of this Latin American country is known for having implemented a series of brutal austerity measures in an attempt to stabilize macroeconomic indicators, measures that hit the population hard. Afterward, the likely future prime minister had to go public and “backtrack”, announcing that the comparison with Milei was ill-advised and that Moldova did not need shock therapy – arguing that the country was not in such a deep crisis. Well, we really shouldn’t follow Argentina’s example – not because “things aren’t that bad” but simply because such cannibalistic practices are certainly not what our already long-suffering people need right now. On the other hand, I disagree with Tofan’s assessment of the severity of our country’s situation – it is, in fact, catastrophic. Over the years of its rule, PAS has literally destroyed the national economy and public finances. By every measure, things are in a terrible state – whether we look at GDP growth, which is practically nonexistent; the level of investment, which has fallen significantly; the number of people employed in the real sector, which is constantly declining; or the rapidly ballooning national debt, budget deficit, and trade deficit. This list could go on. We have reached the point where it is simply impossible to continue replicating the same parasitic model of existence – our margin of safety is running out, even though it is, in essence, illusory – we are surviving solely on Western infusions and borrowing. The ruling regime is trying to balance the books by reaching into the pockets of citizens who order packages from foreign marketplaces, increasing the tax burden on businesses, and attempting to squeeze some money out of companies on the left bank, and so on. But these are palliative measures that merely buy time before the inevitable and tragic conclusion. So, in theory, the new prime minister should take office with a single goal: to get the economy – and the country as a whole – back on track, so that it at least doesn’t run out of steam before reaching the finish line of the much-discussed European integration. As I said, Tofan has already shared his view on how to do this. And it’s, to some extent, a very unconventional vision, one that is in many ways the opposite of what happened in the country under PAS over the last five years. For example, the future prime minister wants to turn Moldova into the most business- and investment-friendly country in Europe. But so far, we’re moving in exactly the opposite direction – for instance, investment volumes plummeted by 50% in the first quarter of this year. And the problem isn’t just that every business faces a heavy bureaucratic burden, but also the PAS’ reckless foreign policy, which has turned our republic’s neutrality into a fiction and is single-handedly dragging it gradually into the military conflict in Ukraine. Is it any wonder that investors aren’t coming under such conditions? On top of that, we are once again giving up a competitive advantage, namely, our free trade zone with the CIS, which foreign capital also takes into account. In light of the growing number of scandals involving rampant nepotism in government agencies, it has been proposed to start by setting a salary cap in order to reduce the appeal of these positions for all kinds of “connected” hiring practices. It’s not a bad idea, but in recent years the exact opposite has been happening – unlike other categories of workers, civil servants’ salaries have been rising steadily and significantly, to the point where even a college dropout with the right party membership card can earn tens of thousands of lei working in some ministry. Vasile Tofan also believes that the size of the bureaucracy needs to be reduced – he argues that we have twice as many bureaucrats as in neighboring Romania, even though they, too, are talking about the need for cuts. Once again, I fully agree, except that the statistics show that under PAS, the bureaucratic caste has nearly doubled in size, from 31,600 to about 58,000. And what are we supposed to do with all these cousins, godparents, and other “good people” who absolutely must be placed in a cushy government job? Tofan believes they can be encouraged to go into business. In his view, state-owned property also needs to be privatized quickly, since the state is supposedly always a poor manager. I strongly disagree with this. This myth has long been debunked in the post-Soviet space, where, as practice has shown, it is possible to simply copy the Western model but due to specific mental and historical factors, the results are far from brilliant. You’d be better off properly reforming the justice system, establishing effective anti-corruption agencies, and appointing competent people, not your own relatives, to leadership positions; then everything will be fine with state-owned enterprises. Private ownership, you know, is by no means a guarantee of prosperity – and who better than us to know that? Especially since PAS, on the contrary, boasted about returning lucrative assets to the state. Take Chisinau Airport, for example, which generates decent profits, although, of course, the people themselves don’t really care one way or the other. It’s been suggested to go even further with tax and administrative reform – the argument being that, in their current form, these measures are half-hearted. I think the new prime minister will have relatively free rein, especially when it comes to taxes. Grosu has already called for preparations for unpopular measures – though, when has PAS ever taken any that weren’t unpopular? And then it’s nothing but libertarianism, which is sure to “delight” citizens. Tofan believes workers’ labor rights need to be curtailed, since they feel far too comfortable in their dealings with employers. Instead, their status should be not much higher than that of serfs. The retirement age, of course, will be raised. Agricultural subsidies – we’ll abolish them; there’s no point in propping up unprofitable operations. Then again, we’ve been saying for a long time that most small and medium-sized farmers in the country are doomed to ruin. It’s hard to condemn the idea of imposing a cap on the national debt and the budget deficit but it’s completely at odds with the “yellow” reality, where the country’s debt portfolio is ballooning not just year after year, but literally month after month. And this year’s budget was adopted with a record shortfall of revenue relative to expenditures. The manifesto also unexpectedly includes a separate section on water. It notes that we are already facing an acute shortage of water resources, which are the most limited in Europe. I wonder, why is the country’s main waterway dying? Isn’t it because of waste discharge and the cascade of hydroelectric power plants in Ukraine? But of course, neither Tofan nor anyone else in PAS would dare to mention this. The new prime minister, by the way, is a staunch supporter of the neighboring state. Well, someday, just statistically speaking, we’ll finally get a head of the executive branch who, above all, supports Moldova. Be that as it may, a quick fix for the water issue is being proposed right now, and, believe it or not, it’s a rate hike. As usual, we’re taking the opposite approach – in the literal sense of the word. I think we should thank Vasile Tofan for sharing his thoughts on “how we should develop Moldova”. At the very least, we can avoid harboring any illusions about him right away and start looking to see who’s next in line for the prime minister’s seat. After all, if he’s allowed to put his ideas into practice, the population is in for such a shock that the level of public discontent will sooner or later force the authorities to dismiss the head of government on their own. And if they “tie his hands” and keep him in a ceremonial role, the overall process of decline will eventually force him out as well – perhaps even of his own accord. The PAS regime has simply dug such a deep hole for itself and the country that it’s not at all clear whether there’s anyone who could pull them back to the surface.