The Endgame for Evghenia Gutul and the Bargaining Over Gagauz Autonomy

The Chisinau Court of Appeal has upheld the punitive sentence imposed on the Bashkan of Gagauzia. At this point, only the Supreme Court of Justice can reduce Evghenia Gutul’s sentence or order her release. However, the court is now composed of judges who have passed through Maia Sandu’s vetting process

Evghenia Gutul is maintaining composure and dignity in the face of what she describes as legal arbitrariness by the authorities, which are using a political “bludgeon” against the Bashkan in order to intimidate the elites and population of the Gagauz autonomy. She still retains resources to continue her fight for justice and her rights, including qualified foreign lawyers and the support of her followers. During the week, an electronic version of the book “Anatomy of Political Persecution” appeared, consisting of 30 letters written by Gutul while in detention. However, signaling actions and the defense’s legal efforts have not brought the release of the former Bashkan or Svetlana Popan any closer. Sentences of 7 and 6 years in a semi-closed correctional facility remain in force and can now be challenged only before the Supreme Court of Justice. Due to the ongoing vetting process, the court is operating at less than half of its full staffing capacity. The Court is chaired, and its judges include, individuals who are in one way or another perceived as receiving direct instructions from the PAS leadership. Therefore, the consideration of Evghenia Gutul’s appeal in the Supreme Court of Justice will directly depend on the political stance of the presidency. However, she has already announced that her lawyers will file an appeal to the Supreme Court of Justice and pledged to stand firm “for her children, for Gagauzia, and for all those who continue to believe in justice, the law, and the truth”. While everyone is “watching closely”, the main drama is unfolding around the elections to the People’s Assembly of the autonomy. Just last week, statements emerged claiming that the approach to holding the vote had allegedly been agreed between Chisinau and Comrat by 95%, which the pro-government press was quick to label as a success for the ruling party. However, most non-partisan experts acknowledge that the electoral and vote-counting mechanism provided for in the draft decision of the Central Electoral Commission would violate the legal balance of powers between the center and the region. More broadly, it would lead to the erosion of Gagauzia’s guaranteed autonomous status, including restrictions on its ability to independently organize and conduct electoral processes. PAS seeks to bring to power in the ATU individuals with whom it could engage in dialogue on the basis of subordination and hierarchy, rather than within the current constitutional and legal framework. Given the current electoral preferences of the population and the regime’s inability to create a genuinely attractive vision for Gagauzia’s future, the presidency aims to take control through methods of administrative coercion. In particular, this would mean granting the CEC the authority to overlook violations in campaign activities by PAS-affiliated candidates, to filter out and exclude undesirable contenders and even entire political forces, and to influence the compilation of voter lists. Most importantly, it would involve counting and announcing election results based on the same software product and under the control of the same individuals who have already ensured outcomes favorable to Maia Sandu in presidential and parliamentary elections at the national level. In Comrat, the presidency and PAS are seeking individuals willing to comply, which would effectively amount to the dismantling of the autonomy’s special legal status. At present, there are no political or informational conditions at the local level that would allow the regime to accomplish its objectives, as confirmed by the recent resounding failure of PAS candidates in the first round of local elections in Taraclia and Orhei. In these two cities (third and fifth place, respectively), despite all campaigning, propaganda, and administrative resources, the party’s performance was the weakest in the history of Moldova for a parliamentary majority party. In Gagauzia, the PAS electoral niche is even smaller, which has always required a more nuanced approach, including discreet communication aimed at managing tensions and maintaining control over the situation. However, PAS is now going all in, changing the electoral procedure for the People’s Assembly. This amounts to a frontal assault on the autonomy, involving tools of informational and propaganda warfare, administrative leverage, and political maneuvering aimed at identifying individuals willing to trade loyalty for access to power and financial resources. The political crackdown on Evghenia Gutul (as well as the prosecution of Dmitrii Constantinov, who left the country in time) also plays an important role in this broader strategy. It serves both as a tool to intimidate Gagauz elites in order to subsequently draw them over, and as a means of diverting attention from the real political processes unfolding around Comrat. Several Gagauz politicians are actively promoting themselves around the issue of Evghenia Gutul’s imprisonment, increasing their visibility and attracting the sympathy of potential voters. If the balance of preferences shifts in a direction acceptable to the regime, the Supreme Court of Justice could compensate for the administrative dismantling of autonomy with a “consolation prize” in the form of a reduced sentence, potentially including the release of the Bashkan and Svetlana Popan immediately after the local elections scheduled for next year. Those members of the autonomy’s elite who most actively engage with the issue of sentence revision, only possible through a deal with the presidency, may effectively be regarded as participants in such an agreement. Such a scenario would destroy the prospects of Gagauzia, but it is precisely the full control over the region and the elimination of Russian influence that Chisinau is pursuing. The interests and identity of the Gagauz people are treated as a factor that PAS seeks to ignore. Local politicians are now undergoing a decisive test of resilience, which will largely determine the future of the autonomy and, more broadly, the regime’s ability to consolidate power across the entire territory of the republic.