“Yet Another Debacle for the Ruling Regime”

Local elections are always viewed as a dress rehearsal for national elections, which is why they receive special attention. In the case of the May 17 vote, it cannot be said that this was a full-scale trial run for the major political forces, since it involved special mayoral elections in 12 localities, of which only Orhei and Taraclia have city status. All the others are ordinary villages. The ruling party went into the election with the intention of demonstrating the full extent of its power and the unacceptability of any real competition. The most important target, of course, was Orhei, the former stronghold of the fugitive oligarch Ilan Sor. However, the PAS team was also actively campaigning in Taraclia and elsewhere. In several villages, the party’s administrative machine literally squeezed out all other competitors, securing a 100 percent result. In the small village of Topala in the Cimislia district, PAS candidate Tamara Ciubotaru received 257 votes (about a third of the residents). Further north, in Mascauti in the Criuleni district, in yet another uncontested election, a quarter of the 4,000-strong population cast their votes for the “yellow” candidate. Among the ruling party’s less significant achievements are victories in the villages of Costesti in Ialoveni, Plop in Donduseni, and Saratenii Vechi in Telenesti. In the first, the party received support from 1,935 residents; in the latter two, 374 and 432 villagers, respectively. However, that is where the PAS’ victories end. In the crucial town of Orhei, the ruling party’s representative, Sergiu Stanciu, finished only in fifth place with 15%. The PAS candidate in Taraclia achieved a similar result. Given the relatively low voter turnout (33-34%), this effectively means support from only 5% of the residents of these two cities. This is the actual electorate that Igor Grosu’s party was able to win over. It’s hard to call these results anything other than a failure, but the party mouthpieces have already prepared explanations for what happened. The official line is that, despite the dismantling of the SOR faction in Orhei, the group itself – that is, the people – hasn’t gone anywhere. There is still a lot of work to be done in this area, they say, not only with opinion leaders but also with the voters themselves. Nevertheless, the main task at the moment was to prevent the participation of Victor Pertu, a well-known figure in the city and currently the general director of the local water utility. As soon as it became known that Pertu was running for the “Democracy at Home” party, a wave of criticism and demands for his removal from the race came from PAS and the pro-government press. For the controversial MP Costiuc, the nomination of Sor’s former supporter was a win-win situation. Had he remained in the race; the party would likely have secured the mayor’s office in one of Moldova’s most significant municipalities. Well, and if he were withdrawn – which is what happened – the party would have gotten the media attention it needed. One could certainly accuse Costiuc of promoting Sor’s people, but Victor Pertu is technically in the clear before the law. He is not officially barred from holding public office, and he is not under criminal investigation. However, our population views the disqualification of opposition candidates in the final stretch of the election race extremely negatively. The 15% support for PAS in Orhei is also the result of a protest vote. A second round is scheduled for May 31 in both cities, and the ruling party will merely watch the outcome unfold. PAS’ failure to gain legitimate control over some of the most challenging settlements, despite deploying its full arsenal of administrative and financial resources, has once again exposed the vulnerability of the local authorities’ position. In local elections, there is no way to mobilize the diaspora or manipulate voter databases. The regime’s high disapproval rating over the past few months has clearly not declined. The economic crisis, the never-ending scandals involving “yellow” functionaries, and the intolerance of pro-government experts and journalists toward anything and everything that does not conform to unionist/European integration rhetoric, which has become an alarming norm, lead to mounting tension in society. It will become increasingly difficult to let off steam even through ritual sacrifices like Vlad Turcanu, due to the scandal that erupted out of nowhere over the ruling party’s voting in the Eurovision Song Contest. The population’s total distrust of the authorities is resulting in unpredictable crises that are increasingly difficult to manage within the framework of the current confrontational course and the “hyping” of the image of a constant external threat. For opposition forces that are truly intent on engaging the ruling party in open political struggle, this state of affairs offers clear prospects. For those inclined toward conformism or mere political deal-making, who traditionally make up the majority, opportunities are also emerging to strengthen their negotiating positions. Against the backdrop of the failure in Orhei, politicians in Gagauzia may harden their positions during the ongoing negotiations over the future configuration of the autonomous region. Under such conditions, it should be easier for Socialists and other moderate opposition figures to promote messages of unity. However, the main problem for all political forces is excessive personalization, whereby they are identified on the country’s political landscape with entrenched leaders whose disapproval ratings exceed the support levels of the parties themselves. In this sense, the local elections once again demonstrate the only path to political survival for parties: a change in leadership and constant rotation. These are the very democratic principles that, just ten years ago, were actively promoted by PAS functionaries who have since become entrenched in their positions. Today, alas, no one wants to waste talent – not so much because of a shortage of it, but because of the authoritarian ambitions displayed by our political establishment with each new election cycle.