EBRD Lowers Growth Forecast for Moldova

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised downward its forecast for Moldova’s economic growth in 2026 amid risks stemming from war, the energy crisis, and instability in international markets. According to the latest Regional Economic Prospects report, Moldova’s economy is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2026, 0.2 percentage points lower than the forecast issued in February. For 2027, the institution maintains its growth projection at 3.5%, logos-press.md reports. The EBRD notes that economic activity in 2025 was mainly supported by agriculture, construction, the information and communications technology sector, and strong investment levels. However, rising imports have led to a widening current account deficit, indicating growing external imbalances. The financial institution emphasizes that Moldova’s economy remains vulnerable to external shocks, particularly in the energy sector. The conflict in the Middle East and volatility in international markets could increase pressure on energy prices, potentially fueling inflation again and slowing economic growth. Inflation has already begun to rise once more. After falling to 4.9% in December 2025, the annual inflation rate increased to 5.8% in March 2026. At the regional level, the EBRD reports that average inflation across the economies where it operates reached 6.4% in April 2026, mainly driven by higher energy and food prices. On the fiscal side, the report points to a gradual deterioration of Moldova’s budget position. The budget deficit is expected to increase from 4.0% of GDP in 2025 to 4.8% in 2026, reflecting higher public spending, including investments and energy-price subsidies. However, the EBRD notes that a significant share of these expenditures is financed through concessional external funding. At the same time, the European Union continues to play an important role in supporting Moldova’s energy security, including in 2026, helping to stabilize the economy and reduce structural vulnerabilities. The EBRD ranks Moldova among the countries most exposed to the consequences of conflicts and the energy crisis, particularly because of its high dependence on imported energy resources and fiscal constraints. The organization warns that without strengthening economic and energy resilience, pressure on economic growth could persist in the coming years.