Early Elections in Moldova Are Inevitable?

The ‘doomsday clock’ of the Moldovan Parliament stopped one minute from the dissolution of the current composition of the main legislative body. At least, the President Igor Dodon thinks so, who the other day estimated early elections 90% probable. “The socialists cannot sit with the Democrats and start negotiations. If there is such a proposal – the Republican Council should meet and ask the opinion of people from the districts. But I do not believe that’s possible. Therefore, there will be no negotiations – neither behind-the-scenes, nor formal, nor official, as there is a clear decision of the decision-making body of the Party of Socialists: “ACUM” or “niciodată”. That is, either coalition with ACUM, or early parliamentary elections. Another, the third option, we did not even consider,” Dodon said. Earlier, the head of state repeatedly warned about the threat of re-elections to the Parliament, and the pessimistic estimates of the President can hardly be called unfounded. Negotiations on the establishment of the ruling coalition frankly withered and are now conducted more by inertia. It seems that today the main goal for their participants is not to create a majority, in which, it seems, few people believe. It is much more important to avoid the inevitable wave of popular frustration and indignation, shifting the blame to opponents for the failure to form a new government in the country. So far, the chances of the PSRM getting away with this look somewhat better. Socialists from the very beginning acted pragmatically: they first made contact with the pro-European opposition, clearly identified their priorities and requests in the future power configuration, which can hardly be called excessive, and insisted on the official establishment of the coalition. The conduct of ACUM leaders seemed far less consistent, besides, it went constantly side by side with the unflattering statements and criticisms of potential partners. In recent weeks, the leaders and members of the bloc began to regularly criticize the informal leader of the socialists Igor Dodon, blaming him for the failure of the negotiations. According to representatives of the pro-European opposition, the President became the main ‘hindrance’ in the dialogue between ACUM and PSRM on “deoligarchization and overthrow of the current regime”. The bloc’s public statements coincided with the active promotion in the media and social networks of allegedly insider information about the almost formed coalition between Democrats and Socialists, which was to be announced “in the nearest future”. New Dodon’s statements brought an end to these rumors. The President expressly told that the creation of a parliamentary majority is possible only with the ACUM, and other options have never been considered in the socialist camp. The President’s statements can be interpreted in two ways. On the one hand, this may be an attempt to completely remove responsibility for a new cycle of political turmoil in the country. Moreover, the PSRM, with the support of Dodon, has actually already begun preparations for a new election campaign. On the other hand, most likely, it was a kind of ‘last call’ to the opposition to bring it to the negotiating table. The PSRM and ACUM cannot but understand that the option of early elections is unlikely to radically change the landscape of the new Parliament. Both political forces in any case have to play by the rules established by the ruling Democratic Party of Vlad Plahotniuc. First, the vote will again be held on a mixed system, which has already brought a lot of parliamentary mandates to the PDM – and is likely to bring it again. Second, the informal master of Moldova, unlike its competitors, has more than enough resources to conduct a new election campaign, not to mention a powerful administrative ‘fist’. It was recently seen in action when the puppet Constitutional Court banned Dodon from nominating a Prime Minister in the absence of parliamentary governing bodies and brought the country even closer to early elections. The lasting coalition bargaining between the ACUM and the PSRM was initially possible largely due to the position of the international partners, who established a rigid framework for Chisinau. This did not allow Plahotniuc to operate the usual methods of bribery and parliamentary defections. Otherwise, most likely, the country has long had a ‘new government’ under the old control of the Democrats. However, both Socialists and pro-Europeans cannot yet find a unique chance to radically turn things around in the country. Both parties should think carefully before withdrawing finally from the partnership and proceeding with early elections. They may not have a second chance.