U.S. Prepares Transdniestrian Settlement Plan

Sergiu CHEBAN Washington latches on to diplomacy: to retain the leading role in international affairs, the United States will offer its own models for resolving regional conflicts Last week, US President Donald Trump made another resonant statement that the United States was ending the era of “endless wars” and was placing a clear-eyed focus on defending America’s vital interests. In particular, US troops will not participate in the resolution of other nations’ ancient conflicts, especially in countries that many US citizens have not even heard of. “We are not the policemen of the world,” the American leader said. Despite the electoral focus of this declaration, experts see in it the long-standing endeavor of the American leadership to reconsider their approaches to international affairs and optimize the resources spent, without compromising their positions on the world stage. In line with this logic, Donald Trump's demands for NATO allies to increase their defense spending up to 4% of GDP have been voiced for several years now. The American president once again demonstrated the seriousness of his intentions on June 5, after instructing the Pentagon to significantly reduce the US military personnel stationed in Germany. Drawdown in US force levels will most likely change the internal climate in the North Atlantic Alliance making its policy more pragmatic. Ideological attitudes dominating currently in NATO impede the building of a new collective security system on the European continent. Recent polemic between Bucharest and Moscow vividly showed an uncontrollable desire to maintain the dividing lines and confrontational nature of relations in Europe. It seems that Romania, in its attempt to please Washington and persuade it to continue focusing on NATO’s southern flank, has crossed the line and provoked the Kremlin’s response. Nevertheless, it is obvious that the United States will not retire from international affairs and will try to continue its decisive role in them, while minimizing the military factor. As you know, the White House chief has recently notified Congress that US military will remain in a number of countries, including Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Turkey, Lebanon, Egypt, the Philippines, the Arabian Peninsula, Kosovo, eastern Africa, Lake Chad basin and the Sahel region, to further deal with counterterrorism challenges. It seems that in new realities the Trump administration will put more emphasis on the activities of American diplomats and special services, including for the purposes of current conflicts settlement. In this context, it is important to mention the White House’s involvement in several complex conflict cases in various regions of the world, for which Washington is developing its vision of a peaceful settlement. By the way, Israel has already taken on the American plan for the Israeli-Palestinian dispute settlement, which was prepared by the Trump administration and presented in January this year. The document on the Middle East settlement, informally called the “deal of the century”, implies mutual recognition of Palestine and Israel, expanding Palestinian territory, entrenching the status of Jerusalem as Israel’s undivided capital, while the capital of the Palestinian state will be in East Jerusalem. If the Middle East issue requires considerable time and major political and diplomatic efforts, then in the Serbian-Kosovo settlement Washington’s foreign policy activity has a much more explicit focus on a speedy resumption of negotiations between the parties and the signing of the final agreement on Belgrade-Pristina mutual recognition before the US presidential election to be held this fall. Analysis of the American administration policy in Eastern Europe – in particular, around and inside Moldova – shows that the small state of Moldova is in the sphere of constant and even sometimes very close attention of the White House. Currently, US interest in this region is growing, due to the intensified US-Russian rivalry dramatically unfolding on many regional “chess boards”. As you know, Washington, working in close conjunction with Brussels and Bucharest, seeks to minimize the traditionally tangible Moscow’s influence on Chisinau. Moreover, Russia has objectively reinforced its position in this region in recent years, relying on the traditionally pro-Russian Transdniestria and “pulling up” the loyal part of the Moldovan political elite, the prominent representatives of which are the President of the Republic of Moldova Igor Dodon and the Socialist Party, ruling today in a coalition with democrats. In the context of the presidential elections in Moldova scheduled for the fall, the United States will try to seize the initiative from Russia in this regional space. The growing general understanding of the Ukrainian conflict impasse, the accumulated fatigue from the Transdniestrian settlement, the results of the presidential and probably early parliamentary elections in Moldova give good reasons to expect Washington’s personal geopolitical “moves”. Regularly leaked videos of confidential dialogues between President Igor Dodon and oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc recorded a year ago are the matter of ongoing public debate. In these videos, the interlocutors voice specific wordings of some plan for the Transdniestrian conflict resolution, allegedly proposed by Moscow. In addition, the ambitious settlement plan that appeared during that period – the so-called “big package” publicly presented by Dodon at the Munich Security Conference – is well remembered. However, a year after the above events, Moldova underwent active political upheaval accompanied by original coalition diffusions and metamorphoses, which ultimately led the country to another round of protracted political crisis. In these circumstances, it is hardly possible to return to the former plans for a Transdniestrian settlement associated with shadow agreements between the Moldovan authorities and the anti-democratic oligarchic regime. Therefore, there is reason to expect a new American initiative on the form of relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol with non-standard approaches typical of the Donald Trump administration.