Serbia and Kosovo Are Being Forced to Settle

Sergiu CEBAN Belgrade and Pristina faced powerful political pressure from outside, actively pushing the parties to achieve a final conflict settlement On September 4, at the invitation of the American side, negotiations between the delegations of Serbia and Kosovo, led by Serbian leader Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovar Prime Minister Avdulla Hoti, are expected to be held in Washington. It is noteworthy that the meeting agenda announced by the White House press service consists exclusively of economic issues. Diplomatic sources claim that talks format also provides for the US President Donald Trump participation, which obviously gives special significance and high expectations to the upcoming meeting. According to experts, despite the "economic camouflage" of the talks between the political leaders of the parties, Washington expects significant progress in the issue of final relations between Belgrade and Pristina settlement. After signing the peace treaty between the UAE and Israel, that can definitely be regarded as a foreign policy of the Trump administration’ success, the White House expects to achieve another important result - if not final, then at least an intermediate one, bringing the Kosovo settlement closer to the long-awaited final. Although there are only few days left before the meeting, it should be recalled that the previously planned communication between Serbian and Kosovo leaders in Washington broke literally down the last moment after an indictment against Kosovo President Hashim Thaci by the Special Tribunal for Kosovo, got published. There is no doubt that the Democrats and personally Joe Biden is not entirely beneficial to any progress on the Kosovo issue ahead of the elections, so it should not be ruled out that the American opposition will try to take measures that would prevent Trump from accelerating the "deal" achievement between Belgrade and Pristina. Meanwhile, the results of the July 31 meeting of the Serbia and Kosovo delegations in Brussels do not inspire much hope and do not clarify the further situation development in the settlement process. The parties only fixed their own extreme positions, which are unlikely to help subsequently achieving specific agreements and prospects for economic relations normalization. Experts say that over the past two years the entire negotiation process has actually revolved around Belgrade's recognizing Kosovo's independence. Serbian elites and President Vucic personally clearly understand the invariability of this trajectory of movement, as well as the inevitability of the final formation of Kosovo statehood. Therefore, the main task of Serbian politicians is to achieve some co-benefit, for example, clear guarantees of joining the European Union. This would present to the public the peace agreement with Pristina as an important diplomatic achievement with a historical perspective. The Kosovo leaders, speaking about their trip to the United States, openly declare that they are going to Washington to recognize Kosovo, hinting the Serbian leadership to the need of signing any documents that may be proposed by the White House administration. The Serbian President, in turn, confirmed that he expects “surprises” during the meeting in Washington and is ready for the most unexpected events development. Apparently, the Serbian leader will have to rely solely on himself and his experience, since Moscow itself is not formally involved in the Serbian-Kosovo negotiation process. By the way, the aggressive pressure of the American administration has already helped removing the intractable Albin Kurti from the post of head of the Kosovo Cabinet of Ministers, and now Aleksandr Vucic may well be under the onslaught if his adherence to principles interferes with plans to "close the issue" as soon as possible. Based on the leadership and representatives of the Russian Foreign Ministry statements, Moscow's position on the current negotiations is quite linear and consistent - determining the final decision on the basis of UN Security Council Resolution No. 1244 without exerting any external pressure on the parties to the conflict. However, neither in the meetings in Washington, nor in the discussions at the level of Brussels, Berlin and Paris, Russia is not represented as a participant in any way. This affects the Kremlin's long-term uncompromising position, as well as the impossibility of any way to provide diplomatic support to Belgrade, which, facing the leading Western capitals, is likely to end up agreeing to all the conditions. Meanwhile, the increasingly clear cut of the negotiation process, when the meetings take place under the auspices of American diplomats, under the auspices of EU politicians, is apparently due to the growing confrontation between the main EU countries and President Trump. In this regard, at the current stage, it is already difficult to say that the West is implementing a coordinated policy towards the Kosovo issue, which, most likely, can negatively affect the achievement of a final compromise, which should satisfy all parties involved. The situation in the negotiations between Kosovo and Serbia can serve as an object lesson for Moldova with its rebellious left bank. For many years Chisinau has been talking about the need to launch a political dialogue within the framework of the Transdniestrian settlement, and is at the same time increasingly shifting responsibility for its organization and implementation onto international partners. However, the example of how exactly Belgrade and Pristina are “inclined to peace” and what means of diplomatic and political pressure are used at the same time make us ask some important questions. The main of them being: to what extent is, actually Moldova able to defend its position if the negotiations “at the top” follow an unpredictable trajectory, and is it worth so blindly placing the Transdniestrian settlement exclusively on geopolitical players’ shoulders, thus, being deprived of the own voice right and of initiative.