Chisinau-Minsk: Ideological Contradictions or Pragmatic Cooperation?

Ales NAZARENKA Maia Sandu and Alexander Lukashenko’s political platforms are diametrically opposed. However, political changes in Chisinau will not necessarily harm the Moldovan-Belarusian cooperation since it has a serious economic background and therefore is largely depoliticized. The adjustments that the COVID-19 pandemic has made and that no government has actually been able to effectively curb, affect the political agenda. President-elect of the Republic of Moldova Maia Sand will not have to make a difficult choice to decide whom to ignore and whom of the states’ leaders to invite to the December 24 inauguration. Given sanitary standards and objective constraints, it would hardly be wise to have a grand swearing-in and inauguration ceremony. Those politicians who do receive an invitation and end up in Chisinau on this day can certainly be considered Sandu's closest partners. However, this will not mean at all that the elected Moldovan president neglects others. Immediately after the victorious second round of the presidential election conclusion a month ago, Maia Sandu made a number of resonant statements that renew understanding of her geopolitical preferences, although they seemed quite clear before. At the same time, the statement that Crimea belongs to Ukraine, the demand to withdraw the Operational Group of Russian Forces from the Transdniestrian region and transform the peacekeeping mission with the participation of the OSCE left clear understanding about Maya Sandu’s political vector. It is obvious that the situation in the Republic of Belarus where popular protests against the election results and the regime of personal power of Alexander Lukashenko have been continuing since August, is no less sensitive issue. The attitude to what is happening in Minsk is the same signal of belonging (the desire to belong) to the civilized Euro-Atlantic community of states, as is the opinion about the status of the Crimean Peninsula. In particular, Ukraine, which has maintained partner relations with the Republic of Belarus for many years, unequivocally supported Svetlana Tikhanovskaya and the sanctions being developed by the European Union against Alexander Lukashenko and his clientele. Nevertheless, Maia Sandu has so far remained silent on the prospects for cooperation with Minsk. The situation in Belarus has become completely confused - the protest movement has not yet fizzled out but it has not achieved any significant results either. Major opposition politicians are still in prison or abroad. The amendments to the constitution promised by Alexander Lukashenko will be prepared by representatives with dubious legitimacy and no one knows whose interests. All this lives an absolutely unclear information on how soon the presidential re-election will take place. At a minimum, Alexander Lukashenko continues to successfully cling to power and Maia Sandu's foreign policy advisers cannot but understand that this process is quite capable of dragging out. The elected President of Moldova is not ready to highlight political contradictions, replacing them with quite constructive interstate relations, which Minsk has never made dependent on who is in power in Chisinau. Of course, Igor Dodon traditionally speculated on his supposedly special relationship with Alexander Lukashenko, having made two visits to the Republic of Belarus during his 4 years of presidency. However, oddly enough, Nicolae Timofti made his first official state visit to Minsk in July 2015. Alexander Lukashenko himself came to Moldova for the first time in September 2014, during the period when the second convocation of the Alliance for European Integration was in power. That visit was, first of all, a tribute to the intensified economic cooperation between the two countries - mutual trade turnover in 2014 turned out to be a record one, approaching 450 million US dollars, out of which 150 million accounted for Moldovan exports. Then, the President of the Republic of Belarus was seriously discussing the level of mutual trade for half a billion dollars per year, no matter the clearly pro-European vector of the Alliance. That task remained insoluble for the governments of the two countries. Under the presidency of the pro-Russian Igor Dodon, trade between Moldova and Belarus reached $ 215 million in 2018 and $ 211 million in 2019. This year, given a general decline in economic activity, the numbers will be even more modest. Nevertheless, Belarus remains an important economic partner for Moldova, fulfilling its obligations to Chisinau under the Agreement on a free trade zone in the CIS and willingly exporting oil products, timber, tires, tractors and trolleybuses, fiberglass and ceramic tiles to the Republic of Moldova. At the same time, Belarus consistently consumes Moldovan wines, cognacs, corn, vegetables, fruits and grapes, as well as carpets and medicines. A very effective industrial cooperation has been established between the economic agents of the two countries. For example, there are assembly shops for Belkommunmash wireless trolleybuses and Belarus tractors in the Republic of Moldova, while Cricova JSC sparkling wines are bottled in Minsk. Violation of these close ties can have an extremely negative impact on the interests of business and the social well-being of citizens of both states, which forces Maia Sandu to exercise caution in the perception of the protest movement in the Republic of Belarus. Official Minsk has repeatedly demonstrated the same caution with regard to Transdniestria the cooperation with which is developing only at the level of regions and economic entities within the framework of trade and economic interaction. Although Tiraspol has repeatedly declared its interest in strengthening ties with Belarus across the entire spectrum of areas, perceiving it as Russia’s key ally. Thus, maintaining adequate partnership relations between Chisinau and Minsk seems to be quite a probable option, especially given the similarity of the political fate of both countries at the current historical stage. In Moldova, Maia Sandu won the presidential elections but did not come to power (while the parliament is conditionally controlled by the Socialists and Shors coalition). In Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, according to the people lost the elections but retains power. The continuing uncertainty brings these two Eastern European republics together and predetermines the possibilities for further cooperation based on economic ties and industrial cooperation.