PAS’ Water Debacle: The Domestic Political Cost

The PAS team and local authorities in Chisinau continue to clash over the hydrological situation on the Dniester, while the capital risks being left without a reliable water supply

The dispute between government officials and the Chisinau City Hall over the city’s water supply has been ongoing for several months now. On Monday, Ion Ceban once again lashed out at the central government, accusing PAS of agreeing to reduce the discharge from the reservoir of the Dubasari Hydroelectric Power Plant dam, which is controlled by the Tiraspol administration. According to the Chisinau mayor, the water discharge has decreased to 22 cubic meters per second, i.e., it has reached levels comparable to the inflow from the Dniester Hydroelectric Station reservoir in Ukraine. Ion Ceban claims that the PAS regime artificially provoked the crisis and calls the government’s actions sabotage, hinting at certain covert contacts with Transnistria. On the other hand, news spread widely last Friday about a fully official online meeting held on the OSCE mission’s platform in Chisinau. Tiraspol promised not to reduce water releases but warned that time is running out. This results in rather conflicting information, although no one other than Ion Ceban himself has provided any data to corroborate the figures he cites. Meanwhile, Tiraspol is appealing primarily to Ukraine, which could increase the flow from the Dniester Hydroelectric Station reservoir. Releasing water from the upper Dniester at a rate of 60-70 m³/s would eliminate any risk of a water crisis in the Moldovan capital. Moreover, the current reserves in the Novodnistrovsk reservoir, which are 10 meters above the minimum storage level, allow for maintaining the necessary flow for many months, with the sole consequence being the risk of reduced electricity generation during the winter months, which is in short supply in Ukraine. However, the PAS regime is neither ready nor capable of negotiating effectively with Kyiv and, in particular, of mobilizing informational and political resources for this purpose. Environment Minister Gheorghe Hajder constantly finds arguments to justify the Ukrainians’ position and expresses gratitude that the Dniester Hydroelectric Station has been releasing volumes of water exceeding the inflow over the past three months. It is unclear how such a “flattery” tactic can be used to defend one’s interests in a dialogue with Ukraine, which fully controls the situation on the Dniester. At the same time, the authorities on the left bank, who are demanding that Ukraine specifically increase its water discharge, are unlikely to be willing to help Chisinau indefinitely, especially if this poses technical risks to the Dubasari Hydroelectric Power Plant, for example. Moreover, Tiraspol objectively fears domestic criticism for supporting the right bank amid the escalation of what the regional administration calls an economic blockade. Prime Minister Vasile Tofan clearly did not help foster mutual understanding, stating that Transnistria will pay taxes (VAT and excise taxes, levied starting September 1), regardless of its dissatisfaction and interests. With such an approach, a retaliatory “stumbling block” is bound to follow. One gets the impression that the PAS regime is not showing sufficient enthusiasm in its negotiations with either Kyiv or Tiraspol. Although the issue at hand is no longer so much about the Dniester’s hydrological balance or environmental standards as it is about the plain and simple danger of a water shortage in the capital. On the one hand, representatives of the ruling party are pushing their way into the water intake station in Vadul-lui-Voda and are doing everything they can to promote the invitation of Greek specialists. On the other hand, the Chisinau City Hall is taking credit for constructing a temporary dam near the water intake station, as well as for using a barge to ensure water intake even as the river’s depth decreases. At the same time, no one is showing the necessary transparency. There is no daily, objective data on how much water the Dniester Hydroelectric Station dam releases, how much water is received and discharged in Dubasari, or how much water Chisinau consumes. There are no adequate long-term solutions or even forecasts, which, against the backdrop of apocalyptic scenarios of the Dniester’s water levels dropping in a number of regions, inevitably heightens public anxiety. The government has declared a state of emergency regarding the water situation, but no concrete actions other than the usual recommendations to conserve water are visible. No demands have been made of Ukraine or other external partners either. It is vital to take into account the fact that the situation with the low water levels in the Prut River and the water connection with Romania also remains problematic. More than 10 Moldovan settlements on the left bank of the river risk being partially deprived of their water supply as early as the next week or two. And we need to get to the bottom of why the government is being so passive. Could it really be that the PAS team is so afraid of “contradicting” Ukraine, even when defending the capital’s vital interests? Or is it that the regime is simply unable to make concessions to Transnistria in order to ensure sufficient water flow, at least in the short term, and prepare for a possible deterioration of the situation? It feels as though Chisinau City Hall, represented by Ion Ceban, and the PAS party have already entered the electoral race. Although the elections are still more than a year away, potential candidates are already being actively discussed within the ruling party. Only yesterday, it emerged that Mayor of Stauceni Alexandru Vornicu had decided not to run. Igor Grosu was quick to name three possible candidates: Gheorghe Hajder, Vladimir Bolea and Victoria Belous. In other words, one of the serving ministers in Vasile Tofan’s government will be competing against Ion Ceban. This is probably why the first two have been repeatedly trading barbs with the city administration through the media over water supply, urban maintenance, transport and infrastructure. The campaign for control of the country’s key city will only intensify. It is not difficult to imagine that ordinary residents will become the casualties of this political struggle, risking the loss of access to basic municipal services, whether because the authorities are incapable of reaching an agreement with anyone or because of the mutual scheming between PAS and the opposition.