Dodon: There Are Three Scenarios for the Political Situation Development

The epidemiological crisis may coincide with the political one, after more and more Democratic deputies stop supporting the government, and to form a new parliamentary majority seems unlikely. In an interview with Europa Liberă, Moldovan President Igor Dodon identified three possible scenarios. "Now all people hope that politicians will not throw the country into a political crisis, because we have a pandemic, we have a crisis due to the coronavirus, unfortunately, and it will not end so quickly, it will continue. We are in the midst of an economic crisis, and it will only increase. Today we held the 11th or 12th meeting with various sectors. Today I talked with carriers. They work at the level of 25-30% of the numbers that we had, there is also a drought. Imagine one more political crisis that our political opponents want - to appoint another government. In my opinion, if this scenario is realized, we will have a terrible second half of the year in the Republic of Moldova." Europa Liberă: You declared November 1 as the day of the presidential election. Did Socialist deputies register the decision to fix this date? Igor Dodon: “Why did I make a proposal about November 1? Because there is a risk that we will have a second wave of pandemic in the fall. Therefore, to avoid overlapping and problems associated with the coronavirus pandemic, we decided to set the nearest date. Why not in October? Someone criticized me when I proposed October 24 or 25, in which case the election campaign would have to be launched in August, but I think it’s better to start the campaign from September 1, 60 days before November 1". Europa Liberă: But are you sure that this epidemiological situation will allow elections to be held? Igor Dodon: "I hope it will, because I believe that the presidential election should be held this year and should not be postponed until next year." Europa Liberă: How does the parliamentary majority vary, because, as we see in parliament, its members continue to move from one faction to another? Do you understand if this parliamentary majority will retain up to the presidential election, for example? Igor Dodon: "At the moment, there is a solid parliamentary majority, 54-55 deputies, if someone else is an independent deputy who was elected independent and did not become independent thanks to party-switchers. 54-55 mandates to support the government, I think, is a solid parliamentary majority. If we look into recent years, even the whole Moldovan policy, we will see that it was only several times when the Communists had 71 alone and we had 56 alone, but today we have 55, two parties, in principle that means the majority supports the government. And we still have three scenarios. The first scenario is that this parliamentary majority is maintained, and the government has enough votes in parliament for the initiatives that it intends to promote. This scenario is quite realistic." Europa Liberă: Will it last until November 1? Igor Dodon: “It will continue for the next period. Maybe even during all the three years of his authority in this parliament. The second scenario - 51 deputies will not stick together. And I want to tell you that in this case, in order to try to form another parliamentary majority, you need to get away from what is now. The difference is six deputies. There are 101 deputies in parliament, one is on the international wanted list, and I don’t think he will come to parliament to vote for the government of Maia Sandu, or Nastase, or Candu. I mean, we have 100 deputies in parliament, which means that we need 51 out of 100, and the rest need 49. Now we have 55, which means that six people must leave. I don’t think that this is real under the conditions I know, because I want to tell you that only yesterday we had a separate discussion with our faction, and we had a discussion with the leadership of the Democratic Party, where we discussed what we are doing next - is there a majority or not? There were 35 socialists, now 37, this is a close-knit team, and it will remain so. That is, according to the second scenario, another parliamentary majority may appear, which appoints another government, dismisses it and appoints another. It will be very difficult to find six more deputies, and it will be even more difficult, even if they overthrow the Chicu  government, appoint another government. First of all, they want to try a lot of legislative provisions, decisions of the Constitutional Court, which is not clear what happens in this case - the president is obliged or not obliged to sign the proposed candidate. A 2016 decision of the Constitutional Court states that this is mandatory, but, referring to the fact that the country's president is elected by the parliament. We now have the country's president, elected by the people, that is, we are entering into certain legal discussions ... It is difficult to form a new government, because it is easy to unite when you go against someone, and when for something it is very difficult. I also want to see how Ms. Maia Sandu, Andrei Nastase, together with Shor and Candu will form an informal coalition. In addition, they must sign ... Europa Liberă: But they say that no one should take commitments Igor Dodon: “Otherwise, the president will not nominate a prime minister. The president can oblige - sign together Shor, Candu, Sandu and Nastase, and then we will see. This is the second scenario, which will take no more than two or three months, because in such a zoo I do not know how to manage and be able to promote laws together. The experience with the ACUM block showed this, and we know how it ended. There were conflicts. And I think that the opposition in this scenario will be very well prepared to blame them, even in the presidential election, because in this case the opposition candidate already has all chances to win in the first round, and in possible parliamentary elections, which are likely to be provided for in scenario number two, because this coalition will not be saved. And we have scenario number three, which includes the Chicu interim government, but early parliamentary elections. Ideally, early parliamentary elections should be held simultaneously with the presidential election. I know the arguments of Mr. Tanase. Europa Liberă: That is, May 8 would be the deadline for the start of early parliamentary elections. Igor Dodon: “I know all the arguments and the decision of 2015. I believe that if it were a political decision of these four - I’m talking about four parties or at least two or three of them - that it is desirable to hold these elections together, then a legal solution would be found if it was decided by Maia Sandu, Andrei Nastase, Greceanii, Filip, all four of them. At the time of Plahotniuc, deputies fled from the factions, and now they are happy to run away from the Democrats, but tomorrow they will start to run away from others. This is a very dangerous practice, and if they recognize that this parliament continues to function, then they also take risks. We already have more than 10% of deserted deputies in this parliament. As far as interests of the Republic of Moldova are concerned, taking into account the pandemic, the absolutely best scenario is scenario number one, when there is a solid parliamentary majority, and the Chicu  government copes with this difficult situation in very difficult conditions, and in a pandemic, economic crisis and drought, the Chicu government can handle this, and the two parties supporting the Chicu  government can provide some stability and balance. Another combination of the parliamentary majority between four different groups, between two parties and two groups, will not be able to cope with this," Dodon summed up.