National Bank Raised Its Official Inflation Forecast to 8.6%

The National Bank of Moldova (NBM) has revised its inflation forecast upwards, predicting that inflation will rise to 8.6% in the final quarter of 2026 against the backdrop of the situation in the Middle East. According to the central bank’s previous official forecast, inflation in the fourth quarter was expected to be 5.0%, whilst the forecast a year earlier (in May 2025) was 4.0%, reports logos-press.md. “The annual inflation rate during the forecast period will peak at 8.6% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and reach a low of 4.1% in the fourth quarter of 2027 and the first quarter of 2028,” the updated forecast states. It specifies that this will primarily result from rising prices for food, fuel and utility tariffs. Earlier, Moldova’s Minister of Economy Eugeniu Osmochescu did not rule out that inflation in Moldova could reach double digits by the end of the year. Earlier, due to accelerating inflation, the NBM raised the base rate from 5% to 6.5%. According to the agency, in March annual inflation in Moldova rose by 0.75 percentage points to 5.8%, and in the coming months will exceed the established threshold of 6.5%. In October 2022, against a backdrop of rising gas and electricity prices, inflation in Moldova peaked at 34.6%, after which it only began to slow down. This time, the National Bank forecasts that the annual inflation rate will begin to fall from the start of 2027, standing at 7.9% in Q1 and 4.1% in Q4. According to economist Vladimir Golovatiuc, “bearing in mind how the NBM’s previous inflation forecasts played out, as well as the recent statement by the Moldovan Minister of Economy regarding a doubling of inflation, it appears that the current targets will also be exceeded. In May 2026, annual inflation stood at 6.8%, an increase of 40% compared with January”.