Bluff or Real Threat: Why Zelensky Threatens ‘Radical Measures’ for Donbas

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Nikolai Tkach Volodymyr Zelensky declared the settlement in Donbas his main mission as President. The Ukrainian leader plans to resolve the conflict within one year and reinforces his intentions with deeds: he initiated contacts with Vladimir Putin, achieved the exchange of prisoners, and made a number of symbolic steps towards Moscow. Kyiv disarmed three volunteer battalions, which many experts believe are responsible for the escalation in Donbas, and offered to return Russian observers to the conflict zone. The Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko even said about some “warming of relations” with Russia that was unspeakable for an Ukrainian official in the period of Poroshenko. Moscow and Kyiv even unblocked the Normandy format and began to discuss the so-called “Steinmeier Formula” of 2016 (then the current German President headed the German Foreign Ministry and chaired the OSCE). It involves a ceasefire, withdrawal of troops, temporary special status of the self-proclaimed republics and holding of elections under the auspices of the OSCE. Russia wanted to document these proposals, but Kyiv refused, although it expressed verbal consent. Then Vadym Prystaiko articulated a ‘Zelensky’s Formula’ in Donbas. According to him, this is a forced solution to the conflict through the cessation of hostilities and implementation of social and humanitarian measures. The diplomat said directly: if the Donbas issue is not solved within a year, Kyiv is ready to move to radical measures. Being asked what these words actually mean, Prystaiko clearly noted that Zelensky is the commander in chief of the armed forces. The last point of Zelensky’s formula sounds like a barely veiled threat of a military solution to the conflict. At first glance, such move of the Ukrainian President looks absurd. However, many experts have long talked about the strong pressure of France and Germany on Zelensky: EU leaders are seeking from him an accelerated settlement of the situation in Donbas and on unfavorable terms to Kyiv. Despite his peace-loving rhetoric, the conflict in Donbas is not the main thing for the new leader of Ukraine. All the heavy activity of Zelensky’s team in the negotiations on the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics serves as a front for Western partners. Zelensky understands that agreeing on Donbas may take forever, and now personally for him reanimation of the Ukrainian economy and ‘explosive’ growth of standard of living of the population are important. The President approaches these problems in his own way, through non-standard and creative moves: land reform, forcing oligarchs to domestic investment. And almost the main engine of the economy, according to Zelensky, should be large infrastructure projects. The Ukrainian leader has already announced his intention to build a new city from the ground up on the Black Sea coast in the south of Odesa region. The fact that the Black Sea coast is the most important resource has long been known. The Black Sea actually opens the shortest trade route to the EU bypassing the vast land areas of Eastern Europe. Back in late 2013, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych signed a billion-dollar contract with China to build a deep-water port in Crimea. For obvious reasons, the project remained ink on paper, but the idea, obviously, has long been in the air. Now Zelensky has picked it up, and he has ambitious plans: they include not only the construction of “Ukrainian Las Vegas”, but also the creation of a large free economic zone around it. Not only Zelensky has views on the region and the Black Sea. At the last Moldovan-Russian economic forum in Chisinau, the Deputy Head of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation proposed to create a trade and logistics hub in Moldova. This is an obvious attempt by Moscow to get a head start, creating competition for the Ukrainian project of ‘free economic zone’. But Kyiv can outbid the Russian initiative, including Moldova in its own project: the neighborhood of the two countries, and the political situation, and the ready infrastructure of the Odesa ports play to it. A new economic power center on the Black Sea coast directly threatens Russia’s interests. Moreover, it is not profitable for the European Union. Brussels surely does not need a trade-economic competitor in the region, especially represented by the two countries in a free trade zone with the EU – there is no doubt that Moldova and Ukraine will become transit countries for goods from Asia and primarily China. Perhaps this is one of the reasons why the European Union is so persistently trying to shift Zelensky’s attention to Donbas and literally ‘hang’ on him this very heavy and perilous burden in the first year of his presidency. In addition, a solution to the conflict would be very useful for the ruling elites in France and Germany, who will soon have to fight for power in the elections. The head of Ukraine is openly pressed for dialogue and unilateral concessions. Apparently, the pressure from EU leaders has become so strong that forced Zelensky to threaten “radical measures”. This is certainly bluff: no one needs a war now. It is more likely to be a signal for Russia and the EU: in case of unfavorable developments, Ukraine will sabotage the negotiations. For example, staging another provocation will again freeze the Minsk process. In this case, Kyiv can outsit the unfavorable external situation, waiting for the change of power in the US and Germany, and restart the settlement in Donbas on its own terms. Given the fact that the presidential and parliamentary elections have been held recently, Ukraine and Zelensky definitely have time for such maneuvers.