Russia Will Help Kosovo Settlement for Compromise on Donbas and Transdniestria

Sergei Isaenko Serbia turned to Russia for help to overcome Western pressure On October 31, the UN Security Council will hold a meeting on the situation in Kosovo. There is reason to believe that it can push the Serbian-Kosovo settlement to the final stage. The restart of the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue is expected very soon after a new government is formed in Kosovo following the off-year parliamentary elections held on 6 October. As you know, the main leaders of the electoral race were the two opposition parties – “Self-Determination” and “Democratic League of Kosovo”, and both of them are in favor of resuming negotiations with Serbia. So now the main intrigue is what exactly will be the position of the new government in Pristina: whether it will become more flexible or, on the contrary, will be tightened in the conditions of rapid development of events which so far develop just in favor of Kosovo. Last week, Washington reiterated that the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina is one of the priority issues of the Balkan policy of the United States, which can affect the entire region and transatlantic security. According to the US State Department’s Special Representative for the Western Balkans, Matthew Palmer, while the talks are stalled, Belgrade and Pristina risk missing the best chance to normalize relations and move towards a more secure and prosperous future. However, things are not going well for Serbia. The so-called ‘delineation plan’ (the exchange of border territories, so that the Albanian-populated areas of Serbia will belong to Pristina, and the Serb-populated communities of Kosovo – to Belgrade) is increasingly rarely spoken about by international participants in the process. This may indicate impracticality of such a formula for the final settlement of the conflict. Moreover, experts of well-known American research centers have already openly stated that Kosovo should be recognized within the existing borders. Therefore, the international consensus on ‘delineation approaches’, which seemed inevitable only a short time ago, suddenly turned into a failure for Serbian diplomacy. In these circumstances, judging by the statements of the country’s President Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia is beginning to look at another alternative model proposed by the EU, which, at first glance, seems to be the easiest solution. We are talking about the experience of joining the UN by two German republics – the East Germany and West Germany, which, without recognizing each other, nevertheless, agreed to the membership of each of them in the UN, as well as in other international organizations. In order not to fall into the trap this time and feeling the increasing pressure of the West, Belgrade looks more and more at Moscow. Earlier, experts have repeatedly been surprised by Serbia’s unwillingness to use the ‘Russian trump card’ in the negotiations on Kosovo. As you know, the Kremlin’s position on this issue is extremely tough and is that the territorial integrity of Serbia must be respected. However, the leadership of the Balkan country, for unknown reasons, was in no hurry to invite Russia to the settlement process, staking on reaching a compromise with the collective West. Now, after the failure of the delineation plan, which could somehow save the face of official Belgrade with the population and international partners, the situation is changing. Serbia’s attempts to demonstrate alternative ways of development and national security to Western countries are becoming increasingly clear. These goals are promoted by a marked intensification of cooperation with Moscow, including the Free Trade Agreement signed by the Serbs with the Eurasian Economic Union and its member states. No less significant was the news that this October Russian air defense systems S-400 “Triumf” and Pantsir-S1 were delivered to Serbia for joint military exercises. According to military experts, they may well remain in Serbia. Such new systems radically change the strategic situation in the Balkans and will help Serbia, once severely damaged by aerial bombardment, to feel much more confident and safer. This development reflects not only the traditionally friendly relations between the two countries, but also the tactical coincidence of the interests of Moscow and Belgrade. At the same time, each of the parties pursues its own goals. Serbian politicians use the Russian factor to counter the increased pressure from Washington and Brussels. The Kremlin has bigger goals. Russia is making another attempt to intervene in the zone of exclusive interests of the United States, becoming an inevitable partner in solving the Kosovo problem. Apparently, now the final settlement of the Serbian-Kosovo conflict will be extremely difficult, or even frozen, if Russian interests are not taken into account. Washington, which had previously conducted a comfortable dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina in the right way for itself, will have to seek a compromise with Moscow. It is easy to guess what the Kremlin will demand. Apparently, the US will be suggested to go on a package basis and close both the Kosovo and post-Soviet conflicts, which are under the patronage of Moscow: in Transdniestria and Donbas. And this can be done within the framework of common approaches – the same ones that Russia and the EU have been diligently developing over the past year.