The Moment of Truth for Moldova: Will Country's Political Landscape Change?

Semion ALBU After a series of unsuccessful maneuvers, Maia Sandu nevertheless nominated a candidate for the post of prime minister, and thus, threw the ball to the parliament side. It will probably, soon become known the scenario that political situation in Moldova will develop this year. “Yesterday, finally, an event that has been expected since the first days of Maia Sandu's rule took place - she nominated a candidate for prime minister, and thus, made a step towards early elections that she and the whole Moldova needed so much. Prior to that, the president tried to play around and invent, with the Constitutional Court, some creative parliament dissolution mechanisms, that lie outside the framework of the Basic Law. As we know, these attempts were vain. Afterwards, de facto and de jure, there were only two options left: either the legislative body’s incapacity, or two times not approving the candidacy of the prime minister within 45 days. The first one does not depend on Maya Sandu’s will, it means that actually there was only one algorithm of actions. This was initially obvious to everyone and it is not quite clear why spending a month on supposedly alternative paths that a priori lacked prospects,” Semion Albu explains. The expert observes: in the end, despite all the maneuvers, the president still had to sit down at the gambling table, where all the trump cards were already in her opponents’ hands. “Agreeing to follow the path of nominating a candidate for prime minister narrowed the choice of further steps to just a few options. The first is not to nominate a candidate at all in anticipation of a more favorable situation. After all, the Constitution does not set a time frame for this, and there have already been precedents for many months when the president postponed the nomination of the head of the cabinet. But in this case, the head of state would undoubtedly find herself under strong pressure from her political enemies. Moreover, Igor Dodon had already sent a request to the Constitutional Court on this issue and accompanied it by a corresponding media promotion,” Albu reasons. According to the analyst, Maia Sandu’s second option is nominating an absolutely “no-pass” candidate that deputies would definitely not vote for. “Here she was offered a variety of personalities – starting with ex-President Vladimir Voronin and ending with Renato Usatii, the populist politician and last election’s bronze medalist. The latter one, through the media has been actively discouraging the Moldovan leader from committing, in his opinion, a “fatal” mistake which is proposing a “good candidate” for the post of prime minister, a person “with a program, with principle and values”. This, in fact, was the third option and that was something Sandu ultimately has chosen,” the expert says. Albu notes that Natalia Gavrilita, former Minister of Finance in the Sandu’s Cabinet of Ministers, being a "flesh and blood" pro-European politician with considerable experience in government agencies and even richer in various foreign companies and organizations, has become a co-searcher for the candidate for the post of head of government. “Describing the candidate, the President was generous in compliments, calling Natalia Gavrilita “professional and responsible” and expressing her full confidence in her. It turned out strange. On the one hand, the positive qualities of the specialist were described and instructions were given to create a government team and prepare a program aimed at "economic development and cleaning up state institutions." On the other hand, the “technical status” of the candidate for the post was emphasized with a remark about early elections as the only way to get out of the political deadlock,” Albu wonders. The fact that the president is counting on Natalia Gavrilitsa's candidacy to be rejected by parliament became clear also after her refusal to support the President's party Action and Solidarity, the analyst said. At the same time, according to him, it is rather amusing that Gavrilitsa, who immediately began assuring of her ability to come with a "team that can get the country out of the crisis and protect citizens’ interests", was apparently not properly instructed about her nominal status. The candidate for the post of prime minister disposes now of 15 days to request a vote of confidence from parliament on the agenda and the entire government list. “Maia Sandu moves the ball to her rivals’ side, inviting them to “step out of the shadow” and show the public their true intentions for the country's political future. The President chose a logical, but at the same time and the riskiest path. Now, only international partners’ intervention (things are far from being obvious with), can stop the parliamentary factions, unfriendly to Sandu, from a "cartel agreement" according to the government of Natalia Gavrilita. It is clear why they need it: after voting for the vote, the parliamentarians will shut themselves up tightly in the electoral trenches and unleash a massive criticism fire on both – the president and the cabinet and will blame them for all the troubles in the republic, ” the expert considers. The PSRM and the Dignity and Truth platform have already announced that they will issue a verdict on the candidacy the President proposed following the next party councils’ discussion. “When making a decision, the head of state was probably guided by the fact that if anyway going to be trapped, then at least benefit from this and get a loyal cabinet. However, the step she has taken, further confuses the situation. Early elections are necessary and desirable for Maia Sandu as soon as possible: her PAS is now “on horseback” and, according to the latest polls, has taken the first place, ahead of the socialists. In the upcoming elections, she has every chance to gather the entire right-wing electorate with an eye to a powerful faction in parliament with no less than 40-45 seats. But it is not clear at all – did yesterday Sandu's decision get the election closer,” the analyst adds. “Tantalizingly, the president has some unexpected surprises prepared for her political enemies. But so far, it seems, the strategic advantage is in the hands of informal parliamentary majority, which now has a free hand. They can appoint a government both the first and second time, or reject it, if it is part of their current plans. Finally, a number of factions can even form a ruling coalition and force the president to nominate their candidate for prime minister. The President did what she’s been asked for a long time to do and now, the parliament is to decide the way country’s political landscape will or not continue changing,” Semion Albu concluded.