Expert: The Unionist Bloc Might Become a PAS Partner in the New Parliament

Vladimir ROTAR The leader of the pro-presidential party, Igor Grosu, announced his desire to see unionists in the new parliament. The latter, in certain situations, have good chances in the upcoming early elections Recently, internal political ups and downs are slowly leading Moldova to early parliamentary elections trajectory. Yesterday, after consulting the PSRM and the SHOR party factions, as expected, President Maia Sandu stated there are circumstances to dissolve people's deputies. The ruling coalition continues resisting so far, but every day its chances to turn the tide dwindle. Therefore, all the Moldovan chessboard pieces, one way or another, come to realize that a new electoral race is inevitable. Right now, the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) is possessing the strongest starting position. According to the "socio-political barometer" that IMAS company presented, about 42.5% out of the determined voters are ready to support the pro-presidential formation. Socialists (32.7%) and the SHOR party (7.1%) follow the PAS. The rest have not yet overcome the 5% legally established barrier. It is curious, but many forces that do have representations in the current parliament have no chances in the upcoming elections. The Democratic Party, Pro Moldova, and Maia Sandu’s former ally Andrei Nastase with his Dignity and Truth Platform will probably be left behind - their ratings fluctuate around the statistical error. But the Communists and Renato Usatii’s Our Party, who teeter on the passing-through edge, feel much better. Similar layouts, where the leading PAS is confidently supported by the current coalitions, can be observed in other polls as well. Figures hint that the pro-presidential formation has real prospects of getting the coveted majority (and control over the executive and legislative branches together with), but this is, as one would say, “a near thing”. PAS will for sure be the largest party, however there’ s as well possible a situation where PSRM and SHOR together will again occupy more than half of the seats. The “left ones”, the PCRM and Our Party that follow them in the polls path and that are hardly to be considered acceptable partners for the pro-Europeans, have a chance to get the “passing-through” during voting. Well, the same Usatii actually supported Maia Sandu in the presidential elections but afterwards, the Moldovan leader deliberately avoided any cooperation with the odious politician. No other right-wing pro-European parties are expected to enter the new parliament – Sandu’s party “vacuumed” quite powerfully this electoral sector when “eating”, among other things, the electorate of its former allies in the ACUM bloc from Platform DA. That is perhaps why the day before, PAS leader and the failed prime minister, Igor Grosu announced unexpectedly his desire to see unionists within legislature: “I would like fewer left forces enter parliament after the elections. We want unionists to be as well represented in the Legislature, so that there’s a cohesive team with more unionist aspirations and delivering a clearer message.” According to the same IMAS data, unionist forces’ ratings are still poor. At the moment, the Unirea bloc (that has once done a mammoth job to unify five specialized parties for electoral purposes) and the National Unity Party can count on no more than 1-2 percent of vote. By the way, this is quite consonant with their representatives’ results (Dorin Chirtoaca and Octavin Tsacu) in the first round of the last year presidential elections. On the other hand, the unionist idea itself is doing quite well in Moldova and keeps recruiting new supporters every year. Together with the almost lost prospect of early integration into the European Union, this process is still carrying on mainly due to incessant mess in Moldova itself and is being aggravated by the socio-economic and now the pandemic crisis. Consequently, there is a public demand, the problem of this part of Moldovan citizens is only that the existing unionist political projects are openly marginal whilst their leaders are either completely discredited (like Chirtoaca), or caricatural and unpresentable (Tsacu, Biletchi, etc.). At the same time, further integration processes development on the unionist flank and a new generation of leaders promoting seems to be quite promising. Even a united bloc from the same PNU and Unirea would have far from mathematical odds of getting into parliament, if a successful election campaign. This is not to mention the fact that the existing political forces, to put it mildly, do not use one hundred percent potential of their audience. For PAS, such a unionist bloc could become a convenient coalition partner and thus, no need to enter unnatural alliances with Communists or Ustatii's party, not to mention the PSRM-SHOR link. The Unionists do still have time to build up their "political fat". Nevertheless, having achieved parliament dissolution conditions, Maia Sandu is not going to force holding early elections. This, in particular, clearly showed her intention to consult on their date with WHO, as well as recent statements that the vote should take place only in a favorable epidemiological environment. Thus, Sandu neutralizes the "pandemic" arguments of her opponents, who regularly make the president appear as an unprincipled politician who is ready to put it up with human sacrifice when achieving her goals. Generally, the Moldovan unionists have already begun preparing for the upcoming electoral race. Last Saturday, on the day of the next “Unirea” anniversary, they did not miss the opportunity to vividly draw attention to themselves, including at the site of the legislative body of Moldova and arranged a solemn meeting by forces of PAS, DA, PDM and Octavian Tsacu. It did not go without presenting a new unionist project, that was a branch of the notorious AUR, the Romanians unification alliance, which won 9% of the vote in the last parliamentary elections in Romania. Through its humanitarian initiatives in the fight against the pandemic, through targeted projects and when creating the same fund for interregional development, Bucharest intends to actively compete for a representation in the new Moldovan parliament aiming at forming a separate pro-Romanian parliamentary faction. Therefore, it is now doing its best to expand the unionist spectrum and mobilize the loyal Moldovan electorate. A certain amount of support can also be provided through the head of state - after all, it is well known she is at least sympathetic to unionist ideas. In this regard, it is characteristic that the AUR branch has already invited all unionist parties in Moldova to join its ranks for a monolithic participation in early elections. Based on experience, it will not be easy implementing such an initiative - these formations have been known for obstinacy and unwillingness to negotiate, something that has recently prevented them from claiming representation in the country's political system. However, the temptation to get it, coupled with president’s pressure, her party and curators from Bucharest can push the integration processes within the unionists ranks and make it possible forming a competitive bloc with good chances in the upcoming elections.