Romania’s Future – A Choice for Sovereignty

The current presidential elections in Romania, as well as those canceled in 2024, are in fact becoming an existential vote for the future development of the state

Romania held the first round of the presidential election yesterday after the repeal of the November 2024 results. At that time, the Constitutional Court ruled that suspicions of Russian interference in favor of ultranationalist Calin Georgescu, who won the first round, were justified. George Simion has now become the leader, receiving 41% of the vote. He is followed by independent candidate Nicusor Dan with 21% and pro-European politician Crin Antonescu with 20.5%. Simion won in 36 of the 47 electoral districts, and also received 61% of the votes of the diaspora, while Dan managed to gain only 25% outside the country. According to the winner, “this is not just an election victory, but a victory for Romanian dignity, those who have not lost hope and believe in Romania, a free, respected, sovereign country.” If George Simion is elected, he intends to pursue the same policy as Georgescu planned, and will also consider appointing the latter as prime minister. Nicusor Dan even stated that the second round would be rather a debate between a pro-Western course for Romania and an anti-Western one, not between two politicians. For the political system of a neighboring country, such a protest vote of citizens is an extremely alarming signal of the delegitimization of the ruling parliamentary coalition, whose candidate took only third place. This defeat has already triggered reports of the planned resignation of the prime minister. If Simion eventually wins the second round, a severe domestic political crisis seems almost inevitable. If a non-party candidate is elected, the US may get another Trump ally in Eastern Europe, who, along with Orban and Fico, forms a solid barrier, complicating the execution of the European Union’s foreign policy plans in the post-Soviet space. During the first round, the White House did not openly express political support for any of the participants, but over the next two weeks it may make its bid to tip the balance in favor of Simion. The results of the Romanian vote likely came as a shock to Brussels, with the right-wing candidate securing twice the margin compared to last year’s first round. The European bureaucrats see the outcome of the vote as a threat with no effective tools left to be neutralized. As it turned out, the cancellation of the elections only intensified the protest sentiments in Romanian society. Any attempt to once again execute a “prohibitive maneuver” may totally destabilize one of the EU members and a key NATO ally on the eastern flank. By the way, the results of the last elections do not promise anything encouraging for Kyiv. Romania is currently one of the key transit countries for the supply of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. American missile defense systems are located in the country, as well as three large air bases which NATO aircraft use to patrol the airspace to the Ukrainian and Moldovan borders, including over the Black Sea. In addition, about 70% of Ukrainian agricultural products are exported through the Romanian Black Sea coast, while the Romanian navy is clearing mines in this area, and the Romanian Air Force is training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 aircraft. It is difficult to say exactly what kind of assistance Romania will further provide to Ukraine, but it will definitely be reviewed, especially if George Simion is elected as president. The President, as head of the Security Council, has the right to veto any decision affecting the country’s security policy. At the same time, it is known that public dissatisfaction with Romania’s financial support for Ukrainian refugees was one of the keystones of Simion’s election campaign. While for Ukraine, as one of the largest regional powers, the victory of an ultra-right anti-system candidate in Romania is a big challenge, Moldova may face much more serious, if not catastrophic, consequences in terms of the upcoming elections. In our country, the turnout was higher than last fall, and the total number of citizens who decided to exercise their right to vote exceeded 90,000. Nicusor Dan became the leader of the vote having scored more than 52%, Crin Antonescu came second with 22%, and George Simion was only third (12%). Unlike his predecessors, Simion presented a clear and detailed plan for Romania-Moldova unification during the election campaign. This indicates that the issue is among the priorities in his presidential program, and any actualization at a high state level can turn the tide of the election campaign in our country. The political revival of the unionism issue will force the ruling party to either gently distance itself from it (which threatens losing pro-Romanian voters), or to join the discourse. The latter will send a powerful signal to citizens who traditionally vote for left-wing parties and political forces advocating for stronger statehood and sovereignty. The forecasts for the second round differ greatly. Some believe that Nicusor Dan will rally the ranks and eventually defeat his anti-system opponent. Others said that Dan was the most suitable opponent for Simion, whom he would easily defeat in the second round. We now await the opinion polls which will show the preliminary electoral alignment. Experts note that the outcome of the race will depend on voter mobilization and on how the votes of supporters of the withdrawn candidates are redistributed. Simion starts the race from a highly advantageous position and will rely on the backing of Victor Ponta’s electorate (over a million votes in the first round), who, by the way, has already expressed his support. At first glance, the task given to Nicusor now looks almost impossible, but with a significant activation of the loyal pro-European voter, the chances to succeed still remain. Should Nicusor Dan be elected Romania’s president, it could lead to a major shift in the country’s politics. This is due to a high level of public demand for fundamental changes in the socio-political life of the state. As president, Dan is expected to be a relatively autonomous figure with a strong pro-European stance, which is especially important in the current geopolitical landscape. In addition, his well-known political independence minimizes the likelihood of influence on his decisions from traditional parties. George Simion’s victory may mark a monumental turning point in Romania’s political system, which has been dominated by transnational globalist structures over the past decades. This will trigger the renewal of the Romanian ruling elites and may lead to a change in the model of political governance in the country. Moreover, for the first time in Romania’s recent history, a president who openly seeks to strengthen national statehood and distance himself from the influence of global actors may take the helm. If destructive factors do not interfere in the electoral process again in order to implement further measures aimed at neutralizing the “sovereigntist threat”, the upcoming second round of elections will be a critical stage in determining Romania’s future political course. The vote will represent an existential choice between pro-European/pro-Western path and the reinforcement of statist centripetal tendencies.