Expert: Plahotniuc ’s Regime May Be Restored in Moldova in the Fall

Vladimir ROTAR The new US strategy for Moldova is in action: the democrats and their behind-the-scenes supervisor Vlad Plahotniuc are again becoming Washington’s backbone in the republic. This means that after the presidential election there is a great risk that the regime which ruled the country until June 2019 might be restored. The coronavirus epidemic has occupied the information space so tightly that it allows the newly formed coalition to quietly continue dividing state institutions and financial flows without any special image costs. This is a natural process, but it is much more interesting how exactly the roles in this union will be distributed in the future. PDM has already snatched a tidbit managing to take control of Euro-Atlantic integration, economy, education and negotiations with the left bank. Nevertheless, socialists and especially their informal leader President Igor Dodon, who not only retains, but also increases his media activity, remain in the foreground. But it is worth recalling that the PSRM-PDM coalition was considered inevitable even after last year’s elections. Moreover, most experts believed that in case it is formed, Plahotniuc would sanction splitting the PSRM, with its fragments to be dispersed all over the Moldovan political field according to the puppeteer’s needs. Situation developed as expected until external forces intervened. As a result, the socialists built an unnatural alliance with ACUM, and the Democrats were knocked out – however, only temporary. Now everything is back to square one. At first glance, there is certain parity in the new ruling alliance, since it has a system of checks and balances. For example, Democrats do not need early elections, which are likely to greatly reduce their representation in parliament. It is important for socialists to maintain power until the presidential election, at the same time making full use of the administrative resource. The party understands that the hypothetical defeat of Dodon will be a powerful shock, which can “nullify” PSRM’s future prospects, as it once happened with the Communists. The unexpected maneuver with the alleged split of the Democratic Party clearly confuses the cards to Igor Dodon and, possibly, some PDM leaders who would like to have greater independence and get beyond too tight control of both Plahotniuc and the Western curators behind him. Now, the so-called “Pro Moldova” enabled the manual flow of deputies between this group and the Democratic Party, and in the right proportions. This is done to keep both the president and the PDM’s top on their toes, as well as to limit their possibilities by depriving of constitutional majority in parliament. Therefore, the socialists continue to play the leading role for right now, but their ruling status will be getting more and more nominal over time. Half of the posts in the government have already moved to PDM, despite the fact that many of the key posts in the government had their protégés before. Not to mention the current prime minister, ex-finance minister in the Pavel Filip government. However, the appetites of the Democrats are much more serious, and they are barely hidden. Philip himself recently claimed that according to existing agreements, after the elections, PDM will receive one of the key posts in the country (speaker or chairman of the government), and a new redistribution of areas of responsibility is also possible. Thus, after the presidential campaign is over, the influence of the Democratic Party will increase even more, and the socialists will most likely get the role of junior partners (fortunately, such an experience already exists). However, in my opinion, there is a high probability that a new version of the Alliance for European Integration comprised of the Democratic Party, the Andrian Candu group, the SHOR Party and part of the ACUM bloc will be formed, and the PSRM will turn into opposition. At the same time, Igor Dodon’s further presidency will in general be beneficial to Plahotniuc and his patrons. The model of the “pro-Russian” opposition president has already proved its effectiveness, making it possible to achieve considerable bonuses from Moscow while maintaining the virtually anti-Russian nature of the country’s foreign policy. In case this scenario is implemented, it is easy to understand that configuration of power that existed under Plahotniuc will be reconstructed. Democrats will again prove to be the pivotal force in Moldovan politics, at the same time playing the conductor role of US interests in Moldova. Apparently, the past year finally convinced Washington that control of such an incoherent state like Moldova is optimal only if there is a single center of power that will rule the country with an “iron hand”. This theory is also supported by the fact that sensational statements by the head of the State Department were followed by no real progress in Plahotniuc’s extradition process from the USA. In addition, it was revealed that even if the oligarch is extradited, he will not be handed over to Moldova. The “lord of Moldova” will be granted a more secluded place, from where he will be able to coordinate the country’s policy out of the shadow, without showing off anymore and obediently fulfilling the curators’ will. Moreover that working remotely amid the pandemic is a worldwide trend.