Coronavirus Chronicle in Moldova: Reality Turned out Gloomier than Forecasted

Marina DRAGALIN The scenario the epidemiological situation is developing in Moldova is being gloomier than the experts have forecasted: mortality "records", queues for intensive care, dying doctors. However, most of the population does not still believe the coronavirus exists and is not ready to get vaccinated. The world has been trying to curb the new coronavirus infection for more than a year but the pandemic is in no hurry to slow down. Over 73 million people have been officially COVID-19 positive tested. The World Health Organization is again registering a record weekly increase in new cases. Another daily anti-record was set just yesterday - more than 722 thousand new cases were confirmed. Yesterday was also marked by a "record" in the number of deaths - about 13.6 thousand people died. Overall, almost 1.67 million people have died from the infection and its consequences and death rates continue rising. Maria Van Kerkhove, the head of the technical group of the WHO Emergency Diseases Unit, said its level has worldwide increased by 60% over the past six weeks. At the same time, mortality increased by almost 100% in Europe. In these conditions, warnings from the WHO Regional Office for Europe about the risk of an outbreak in early 2021 sound quite reasonable. Experts associate it with non-compliance with preventive measures, in particular with a sharp increase in people gatherings, including family members, religious groups and friends on New Year's holidays. “Despite some small progress, transmission of COVID-19 in the European Region is widespread and intense. There is a high risk of a further surge in the 2021’s first weeks and months,” the report stated. As the news reflect, Europe deeply intends preventing another outbreak. Many countries are tightening restrictive measures. For example, the United Kingdom with its nearly 2 million COVID-19 infected people and with the region's highest death rate, has imposed maximum restrictions on the capital and suburbs. A sharp aggravation in the epidemiological situation provoked the introduction of a lockdown in Slovakia starting tomorrow. Quarantine is being tightened in Germany - shops are closed and even the number of adults at family holidays is limited. A curfew is being introduced in Poland - it will take effect in the last days of December and end in the second decade of January. Meanwhile, World Health Organization Regional Director for Europe, Hans Kluge, said a complete lockdown is not the best way to combat the spread of the coronavirus and "a softer, gradual approach is better." According to him, the strict quarantine which was introduced in the spring, although it reduced the spread of coronavirus, harmed many people as well, in particular people with diseases or disabilities. Moldova is also preparing for a serious post-New Year replenishment in the ranks of patients with coronavirus. Almost 132 thousand people have already been infected in the country, more than 30 thousand residents are under doctors’ supervision. The number of patients in serious condition and connected to mechanical ventilation is growing. For several weeks there have been queues for places in intensive care. There are not enough oxygen sources. Experts talk about an increase in mortality rates from COVID-19. The epidemic claimed the lives of 2,674 citizens. In this situation, even a slight increase in pressure on the healthcare system might become critical. “Holidays will be a big problem for the whole system, given that Moldovans love having fun. It is important to understand that this year the winter holidays should be calm, only at home and only with the family, without strangers,” the deputy head of the Chisinau Municipal Health Department, Boris Gilca warns. “It is important to avoid and prohibit all New Year celebrations, which are usually organized for companies, parties with all companies, dancing and so on. Specialists' forecasts indicate that after the holidays we will have a huge increase in new cases requiring hospitalization and much more critical cases requiring treatment in intensive care,” the expert emphasizes. The former Minister of Health Alla Nemerenko revised as well her yet disappointing forecasts: “On November 26, I made a forecast that if the government does not take action, there will be 39,000 new cases of COVID-19 in December and 50,000 in January 2021. I must confess, I was wrong ... There will be not as many cases as I predicted but much more. Indeed, by mid-December, 30 thousand cases have already been registered. That is, in December there will not be 39 thousand, but at least 50 thousand, or maybe more. January is to show about 70 thousand. The results exceed even the gloomiest forecasts. " Against this background, the results of a study on the perception of coronavirus infection, conducted by the Ministry of Health with the support of WHO, cannot but rejoice. The citizens of Moldova have become more serious about the danger of contracting coronavirus. More than 40% of respondents expressed confidence that the likelihood of contracting COVID-19 is high, which is almost 10% more than during a similar study in July. Another important result is that only a third of citizens are ready to get vaccinated against coronavirus. The rest are not sure about the safety of the drugs developed. A more serious attitude towards the pandemic among the population is an important factor in stabilizing the epidemiological situation. It is predictable that during the holidays, most of us will unfortunately make a choice in favor of a cheerful rather than a safe new year. However, by this time the system may already receive its portion of the stress load - it is unlikely that massive political rallies and protests that have taken place in the past two weeks will go unnoticed.